Kei Igawa Sucks, The End

This says it all;

" Kei Igawa's second year got off to a horrid start Friday when he loaded the bases against the University of South Florida on two walks - including one to the Bulls' No. 9 hitter - and a hit batsman and then gave up a grand slam to a sub who hadn't played college baseball since 2005"

What Is Melky Cabera?

Brian Cashman came out with the following comments;

“Melky has to fight for what he has,” Cashman said. “I can’t stand here and tell you he’s going to be our center fielder moving forward. That’s up to him.”

He also added about Brett Gardner;

Brett Gardner is not your typical Yankee-profile type of player,” he said.
“We’re trying to break that profile to some degree because there’s more to this game than hitting for power.

“We think he could be a Juan Pierre who takes a walk. Here’s a guy who can steal bases; he can get on base; he plays the short game. We need athleticism like that, especially when you have a bunch of these old farts filling the roster out. Those young burst-of-energy, athletic guys really stand out on a team like ours.”

Brain is clearly trying to light a fire under Melky and not allow him to get comfortable with his clear role as the team's everyday centerfielder. So it begs the question, what do the Yankees have in Melky? We know his stats compare favorably to Bernie at the same age but he profiles as a different player (more SB ability, better arm, less power) then Bernie in his prime. Let's start by looking at some projections for him this year;

Zips .286/.352/.419 16 Hr 13 sb
Cario .287/.345/.407 9 HR 7 SB
Pecota .283/.342/.404 10 HR 14 SB

Definitely acceptable numbers out of a CF but not elite level by any means. The question becomes can the Yankees accept a player that isn't All-Star level or will the fantasy baseball GM in them force an upgrade? I have long believed that you need players that are good but not great on your team to balance it out. There is less pressure to perform in big spots and they are willing to do the little things and not be the hero. Having a couple positions with a Melky type player is actually better for the team in big games. This is not something that is quantifiable with stats or some other method but something I have observed over time. Upgrading Melky would be a mistake. He is a solid player who brings energy and life to the club. Let him play and get your stars elsewhere.

Joba vs. Buchholz

The experts over at BA discuss Joba vs. Buchholz:

Jim Callis: In terms of pure stuff, I think Buchholz' curveball and changeup are right up there with Chamberlain's fastball and slider. I'd love to have either of those guys, but I'd take Buchholz for two reasons. One, his plus fastball and occasional plus slider give him a deeper repertoire. And two, given their pasts and their builds, I think Buchholz is a better bet to stay healthy over the long haul.

Chris Kline: They're both fearless, but Chamberlain pitches off his fastball more consistently. And not that Buchholz is some soft-tosser, but I when I think of an elite pitcher who will come right after hitters with pure power, it's Chamberlain. And for as good as Buchholz' secondary stuff is, Chamberlain's arsenal of secondary pitches seems a little underrated to me.

Will Lingo: I think given Chamberlain's build, durability questions, and overwhelming success out of the bullpen, it's going to be mighty tempting for the Yankees to make him Mariano Rivera's successor. I know they're talking about moving him to the rotation at midseason, but Jonathan Papelbon was a starter at this time last year too. I just think Buchholz is a little more likely to end up as a long-term No. 1 starter.

John Manuel: I ranked Joba higher because he's a four-pitch guy with two (fastball, slider) that earn 70 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, plus command and impeccable makeup. He can get big leaguers out with a fastball in fastball counts, while Buchholz relies more on his secondary stuff. Chamberlain's superior fastball makes him the better bet to be a long-term ace. In fact, it makes him the best pitching prospect to come around since I've been at BA, surpassing Josh Beckett and Mark Prior.

So 2 out of 4 prefer Joba to Clay, with one picking Buchholz only because of injury concerns due to The Beast's body, and the other betting Joba stays in the pen.

I REALLY hoipe Longo is wrong and the Yanks stick to the plan to get Joba in the rotation. 200 innings out of a phenom like Joba is far preferrable to 70!

Happy Birthday to a True 'Warrior'

Moshe over at Bronx Block recounts some of the more memorable Paul O'Neill moments on this Paulie's 45th birthday:


1) The Catch- O’Neill caught the last out of Game 5 of the 1996 World Series. Off the bat, Luis Polonia’s drive looked like it may tie the game. A gimpy O’Neill was perfectly positioned and caught the ball in the gap at a full run. His punch to the wall after the catch is one of the enduring images of that series.

2) The Chant- The 2001 World Series was tied at 2, and the Yankees were down 2-0 in the ninth inning. Instead of focusing solely on the game, the Yankees’ fans took the time to acknowledge that this was likely Paul’s final game at Yankee Stadium. The chant of “Paul O-Neill” filled the Stadium for minutes, and replays always give me the chills.

3) The Slide- The Yankees trailed the Indians by one run in the 9th inning of Game 5 in the 1997 ALDS. O’neill hit one off the top of the wall, and limped towards second for a double. A hook slide got him in safely, although he came up bloody. The Yankees lost, but the play led the Boss to dub O’Neill “a warrior.”

4) The Walk- The Yankees trailed the Mets 3-2 with one out in the 9th inning during Game 1 of the 2000 World Series. Armando Benitez entered the game to close it out, and the Yankees were desperate for baserunners. Paul worked a 10 pitch walk, scored on a sac fly, and the Yankees eventually won the game and the Series.

5) The Home Run- The Yankees and Mets met at Shea Stadium for the first of three on June 27, 1998. The Yankees trailed 4-3 with one out and two on in the seventh. In an oft criticized move, Bobby V went to Mel Rojas to replace the injured Al Leiter and face Paul. O’Neill smacked the first pitch he saw over the fence in left center, leading to a Yankees victory.

Trading Roberto Kelley for O'Neill is one of the best moves in recent Yankee history; it literally started the dynasty. Paul was not only an offensive force for the Yanks, but also contributed mightily to the atmosphere that lead us to 4 championships in 5 years.

4 Days to Michael Kay's Sweet Annoying Voice

I can almost smell baseball, real baseball has almost returned. Yes, it will be meaningless spring training games but I can't wait to see Joba, Phil and Crew. I can't remember a season with more anticipation then this one from the first pitch of spring training, I can't wait. Other years it was ho-hum talk let's play some real games but with all of these kids what happens in Florida will be news and worth watching.
4 days(3/1) to First Sprint Training Game
5 days(3/2) to First Sprint Training Telecast

So far the stories of spring training have surrounded the new attitude with Girardi on board. It seems that almost every player was called personally and told to come to camp in shape. That kind of show up ready attitude and the exuberance of youth have changed the tone in Yankee land. Let's hope the positive vibe carried over through spring training and into the regular season. This is one season I can't wait to see.

Pitch FX Data

I happened across this blog which provides analysis of pitch fx data for all MLB players last year. If you haven't seen the pitch fx data before I urge you to take a look. It breaks down each pitch a pitcher throws recording speed and break of each pitch. There was some interesting things I noticed while looking through the Yankee player's data:

Ian Kennedy's fastball moves a lot(-5.16x and 12.37z) compare it Roy Oswalt (-4x and 9.51z).

Joba Chamberlain throws a nasty curve (8.5x and -4.68z) compare to Josh Beckett (6.65x and -3.51z).

Mariano's cutter is unreal (1.94x and 8.27z) compare to Tim Hudson's cutter(-1.86x and 3.34z).

Also, I noticed that Papelbon throws a real moving fastball but not much else with any movement. Interesting stuff, I urge you to take a look.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

It's the bottom of the 9th at the Stadium in the ALCS. The Yanks lead the Sox 5-4 but through the usual 'dinks and dunks,' the Sox have the bases loaded against Mariano with only 1 out.

We need a double play.

I ask you, fellow Yankee fans, where do you want that groundball hit?

I have no doubt of your answer.

Isn't that far more telling than any statistical study?

Tabata a "Special Bat"

John Manuel had this to say at BA about Jose Tabata -

"Tabata has a special, special bat. It's the kind of guy where you see the swing and how he approaches things, and you think this is a guy who will hit .300 and hit 25 or 30 home runs a year. But what you guys have in your Prospect Handbook--plus run, plus arm . . . no, I didn't see a plus runner. I didn't see a great arm. Maybe a tick above (average), but he didn't show me a plus arm. But it won't matter with that bat."

Are the Yanks Setting Joba up to Fail?

Joba The Beast has yet to make a start in the major leagues, but the Yanks envision him becoming a front of the rotation starter. The plan right now is to start him in the 'pen, send him to SWB at some point during the season to stretch him out, and then bring him back to be a starter.

What happens if when Joba returns from AAA he gets hammered as a starter? Usually a young pitcher like The Beast would get sent back to AAA to figure out why he is getting hit and then brought back to give it another try.

In Joba's case, however, if he does not succeed almost immediately as a starter, will the Yanks send him down to AAA to work it out, or will they put him back in the 'pen where he has been extremely successful? Having that dominant link to Mariano might be a key to the Yanks winning a World Series in 2008; will Hank, Hal, Cash and General Joe be willing to sacrifice that possibility in order to allow Joba to work out his starting issues in the minors?

I think the Yanks are backing themselves into a corner. It's extremely unfair to ask a 21 year old with ZERO games started in the major leagues to be successful immediately. Unless he is successful immediately the pressure to put him back in the 'pen will be immense. If he returns to the 'pen Joba would probably top out at 100 - 120 ip for the year and we would be faced with the same innings limit issue in 2009 as we are in 2008.

I completely agree with the goal of protecting all of our young pitchers with an eye toward their (and our) future. In this case, however, I think the Yanks are setting Joba up to fail (as a starter) and pushing him toward being a career reliever.

Ace?

Let's play the comp game -

Pitcher A

Year 1- 25 starts, 141 ip, 155h, 4.85 era (92 ERA+), 1.461 whip
Year 2 - 30 starts, 192 ip, 182h, 2.86 era (146 ERA+), 1.219 whip

Pitcher B

Year 1 - 29 starts, 178 ip, 194h, 4.55 era (103 ERA+), 1.433 whip
Year 2 - 32 starts, 222 ip, 217 h, 3.41 era (144 ERA+), 1.252 whip

Pitcher C

Year 1 - 33 starts, 204 ip, 191h, 5.01 era (95 ERA+), 1.295 whip
Year 2 - 30 starts, 200 ip, 189 h, 3.27 ERA (145 ERA+), 1.141 whip

It's tough to tell the 3 pitchers apart, no? Each had a bad year followed by an excellent year. Each had eras league average or worse, followed by dominant eras the next.

Pitcher A - Kevin Millwood
Pitcher B - Charles Nagy
Pitcher C - Josh Beckett

If I had a penny for everytime I read about Josh Beckett being the standard for an "Ace" this offseason, I could retire a rich man. For his career, Beckett's ERA+

98
138
108
118
95
145

Good year, bad year, pretty much all the way through.

Beckett has pitched extremely well in the postseason - these performances, though, happen to coincide with his 2 best overall years when he sported ERA+ of 138 and 145.

History is littered with pitchers who had exceptional years, but were unable to find the consistency of a true Ace - Javy Vazquez, Jeff Weaver, Esteban Loaiza, Jaime Navarro are just a few.

Is Beckett the next Jeff Weaver or Jaime Navarro? or is he a becoming a true Ace? While I am certainly not looking to call him Esteban Loaiza, I believe it's way too early to be annointing him the standard to which all pitchers aspire.

Spring Training is Finally Here

In case you missed it Pitchers and Catchers have reported for duty. We are now free from the Johan talk and soon (I hope) the Roger Clemens saga will quiet down. So we can now concetrate on actual baseball related items.

Spring training is a great time of year when every player is filled with potential and we are reminded that spring is coming. The sight of players doing sprints, playing catch and taking BP fills me with joy. Its time to talk real baseball stories so lets take a look at the top story lines of the spring:

Who will fill the Firstbase role?

The canidates are Shelley Duncan, Morgan Ensberg, Wilson Betemit, Jason Giambi, Jason Lane, Hideki Matsui and maybe later in the season possibly Nick Johnson or Juan Miranda. Long on canidates, short on answers. I think you pencil Shelley Duncan in for some time here as he is almost guaranteed to make the team at least as a part time role. Also, Jason Giambi will probably get more time then we all think. Spring training will determine who the "other" guy is. Morgan Ensberg probably has the inside track to make the team, with Jason Lane being the longshot. Expect a revolving door at first; some Giambi early, Shelley against lefties, Betemit at times and Ensberg being given a shot. Firstbase may be be a revolving door, but all of the candidates this year have a higher upside then the Phelps or Phillips combo from last year. I don't think we should make a move now for a long term solution. Mark Texiera is available at the end of the year; if he gets away I think you look to make a move, but this year will be done by committee and the offense is in a place where we can be a little patient here. My hope is that Shelley and Betemit get the majority of the ABs here.

How will the veterans react to General Joe?

I see Joe Girardi as a blend between Buck Showalter an Don Zimmer; a super-prepared advanced baseball mind but with some more people skills and a better feel for the game then Buck. Joe G. will try and create a certain atmosphere and will be a lot more hands-on then Torre was. We have already seen the General Joe rules and it will be intertesing to see how the veterans and long term Torre guys react to a more controlled environment. I think it was long overdue. It became too comfortable for these guys to fail over the years and the high priced vets that were brought in need some pushing from time to time. This change though could be rough at first as the long time Yanks adjust to the rules. It wil be interesting to see if Girardi has to win any early battles for control of the clubhouse.

Open Casting Call: The 2008 Yankee Bullpen

Mariano, Farnsworth, Hawkins and Ohlendorff are in. So that leaves the following canidates for the last 2 to 3 spots; Bruney, Ramirez, Veras, Patterson, Albaladejo, Britton, Henn, Igawa, Kartsens, Wright, Rasner, Billy Traber, Scott Stirckland, and Heath Phillips. Expect a long man, maybe a lefty (probably Igawa) and one more to make it. The battle should be intertesing and the bullpen will look and feel a lot different then it has in years. I like the strategy of throwing a bunch of options at the pen and seeing who sticks.

What to do With Jeter?

So we can now add a new Wharton statistcal measure of fielding prowess to the hordes of measures rating Derek Jeter as a below average fielding short stop. Let's assume for a moment that they are correct - Jeet is among the worst SS in all of MLB; my question is - what then?

As our Captain, face of the franchise and clubhouse leader, Jeter is not about to get embarrassed by the Yanks. Additionaly, even if the Yanks wanted to tell him to move, where would we move him to?

Second base - taken for the next 10 years
Third base - we're not gonna swap DJ and Arod for 2 reasons...first, that would be a huge slap to Jeet, and second, Arod has become a very good 3B
First base - after 2008, Texiera will be there for 5 or 6 years
Left field - possibly, but both Damon and Hmat are signed thru 2009

I guess Jeter could start the 2010 season in LF; what if both Ajax and Tabata are ready though? The point is that even if Jeter is the worst SS in the league (which I subjectively do not believe), he ain't going anywhere.

Moving Jeter off short is like moving Mantle out of center, or putting Whitey Ford in the 'pen. For better or worse, I think we're going to see #2 manning SS until he's ready to hang up his spikes.

Hall of Champions

With the Yanks having given out Paulie's #21 to a guy on a minor league contract, there has been much discussion about retiring numbers and who deserves it. With as storied a history as the Yankees have, I think they need to create a new honor for players to be recognized as great Yankees, but fall short of inclusion in Monument Park - the Yanks should create a 'Hall of Champions.'

Essentially the HOC would be an honor for players like Paul O'Neill that were great Yankees but would maintain the integrity of Monument Park for the likes of Ruth, Gehrig, Joe D and Mantle. A player included in the Hall of Champions would get his day, be immortalized at the Stadium, but his number would not be retired.

Every team that wins a World Series would have their leaders included in the HOC, and it would create debate about players like Willie Randolph , Goose, and Nettles from the 70's teams, and O'Neill, Cone, and Tino from the 90's.

Foir $1.3 billion, maybe it's not too late to add a room to the new Stadium?




-

2008 Free Agents

The following contracts will be expiring at the end of the 2008 season:

Jason Giambi - $21mm
Bobby Abreau - $16mm
Andy Pettitte - $16mm
Carl Pavano - $10mm
Mike Mussina - $11.5mm
Kyle Farnsworth - $5.5mm

Total - $80 million.

(You think CC's agent knew this when he broke off talks with the Indians?)

There are some pretty interesting names that are currently headed for the '08 free agent class; some names the Yanks may have interest in:

Mark Texiera
Tex will be 29 at the start of the '09 season and is a perfect fit for the Yanks. A switch hitting, great glove power-hitting first baseman? Sign him up - (anticipated Yankee contract - $18mm AAV x 6yrs)

Hank Blalock
In the event we can't sign Tex, Blalock would be a fair backup plan.

CC Sabathia
Umm...28, lefty, Cy Young winner, 200+ ip per year, no injury history...nah. (Anticipated Yankee contract $22.5mm AAV x 6 years)

Adam Dunn
Dunn likewise will be 29 starting the '09 season, and as Hmat and Damon will be in their last year and probably in wheelchairs, we need some OF power help. When Ajax and Tabata are ready, Dunn will slide nicely into the DH role. (Anticipated Yankee contract - $15mm AAV x 4 years)

AJ Burnett
As he has the ability to opt out of his contract at the end of this season, look for Burnett to have a monster year. There has never been any question about the guy's talent, but staying healthy has been his main challenge. As he will be 32 entering 2009, look for someone to give AJ a 4 year deal worth about $15-$18mm per. I hope it's not the Yanks.

Brad Lidge
Depending on how his season plays out, and how the youngsters in the Yankee 'pen develop, Lidge might be a good pickup for '09 and beyond. If a couple of Veras/Melancon/Sanchez/Ohlendorf/Ramirez develop, however, Lidge won't be needed.

Between Tex, CC and Dunn the Yanks would be doling out $55.5mm of the $80 coming off the books. With the balance we need to sign IPK, Joba and Phil to long term deals.

A Few Good Pitchers

In case you missed this on It Is High...

Clemens: You want answers?

Congressman: I think I'm entitled to them.

Clemens: You want answers?

Congressman: I want the truth!

Clemens: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has baseballs. And those balls have to be hit by men with bats. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Congressman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for steroids and you curse HGH. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that HGH, while illegal, probably sells tickets. And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, sells tickets...You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that mound. You need me on that mound. We use words like fastall, slider, splitfinger...we use these words as the backbone to a life spent playing a sport. You use 'em as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and falls asleep to the Sportscenter clips I provide, then questions the manner in which I provide it! I'd rather you just said thank you and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a bat and dig in. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you're entitled to!

Congressman: Did you order the HGH?

Clemens: (quietly) I did the job you sent me to do.

Congressman: Did you order the HGH?

Clemens: You're god damn right I did!!

Hey CC you Know Pinstripes are Very Sliming, Right?

CC Sabathia has apparently broken off talks with the indians untill after the season. As long as the Indians stay competitive expect Sabathia to hit the open market after the season. This is very good news for Yankee fans. With significant payroll coming off the books after 08 (Mussina, Giambi, Pettitte, Farnsworth) and the increased revenue of a new stadium, I don’t expect the Yankees to get outbid for Sabathia. Sabathia is currently 26, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and has had an ERA+ of 140 or better the last two years. Add in the fact that no prospects will depart to bring him here, and the Johan non-move could look very good in 12 months.

George M Steinbrenner Day - Sign the Petition!

We at YankeeGM Blog are sponsoring a petition to have a George M Steinbrenner day at the Stadium.

The Boss has been the most important and consistent part of Yankee success since buying the team. We need to show George our appreciation for his years of dedication to the Yanks and for his dedication to us, the fans.

We would like the Yanks to have a George M Steinbrenner Day this year, and to put a monument in Monument Park in George's honor.

Sign the petition here -

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/yankeegm_gmsday

DOJ should look at Congress before Filing Charges

No doubt, Clemens took a hit yesterday. Is he guilty? Probably. The Dept of Justice, however, would be well suited to review tapes of yesterday's cage match before proceeding with charges.

While a lot of it looked to come down on party lines, there was definately an obvious split among the members of congress. Half of them looked to back MacNamee and roasted Roger in questions, and the other half backed Rocket and killed MacNamee with questions.

If the members of congress are this split, a jury is sure to have a lot more trouble coming to a unanimous decision.

Hopefully this is the last we will hear of this and we can now focus on baseball!

Andy Delivers Serious Blow to Rocket

Before I go into the details I thought it was important to state a fact first; there are two contributors to this blog and sometimes we disagree on certain topics. One of those topics is the Roger Clemens saga. I am stating this because my post is about to contradict the feelings and beliefs that my blog partner has expressed here previously and some of you may simply think this is a 180 based on the evidence. It is not, I have always felt this way.

Roger Clemens' case has now taken a huge credibility hit. According to Newsday....

Sources said McNamee has told investigators that in the winter of 2002, he, Clemens and Pettitte were working out together at the gym in Clemens' Houston home. According to the sources, McNamee says that during a break in the workout, Pettitte went over to McNamee by himself and asked: "How come you don't give me the stuff you give Roger?" McNamee supposedly replied, "Because it's illegal."
...and now on to Pettitte

Pettitte's account matches McNamee's in most details

So now we are supposed to believe both are lying? Or as Rocket claims they are talking about medications besides steroids? Even if it was something other than steroids that's enough to create suspicion. After all, if a player will take other illegal drugs why wouldn't he take steroids? I have always believed Roger was lying and this does nothing but solidify that. Look at some of the relevant facts:

• Nobody else has disputed McNamee's claims
• Andy backed up McNamee and his story
• The needles
• "I was eating Vioxx like it was Skittles" - Roger Clemens
• The Tape - Why wouldn't Roger ask McNamee why he was lying?
• McNamee had everything to lose by lying, nothing to gain.
  

Tomorrow should be an interesting day as Rocket will most likely bring out all the stops to defend himself. The thing that I do not understand is why hasn't a player taken the stance we all know is true and might actually give them some vindication? I want someone to stand up and say:

"Yes, I did steroids but it was necessary to compete at a high level. Was it wrong ? Yes. I apologize for it but I wanted to maintain a high-level of performance for me, my family and my team. To do that I needed to have the same advantage as the other top players and that meant taking steroids."

I know the truth is not something baseball, its union, or Selig is really interested in.

TPA Top 100 prospects in Major League Baseball

Just wanted to give everyone the heads up that I just published JP Schwartz annual ranking of the Top 100 prospects in Major League Baseball.

This rankings can be viewed at: http://www.topprospectalert.com/2008top100baseballprospects.htm


All the best

BEN
http://www.topprospectalert.com/