Jesus Montero is Still the Savior

This week's SI has an article about the prodigy for the Braves, Jason Heyward, and to sum it up the kid is the chosen one. As a Yankee fan I tend to read every baseball story and relate it back to my Yankees in some way. My first thought was why didn't we get this kid! My second, how does Jesus Montero compare? I know Jesus is not the athlete that Heyward is but what about as a hitter? Heyward is 2 months older then Jeses and already in the bigs but check out the two as minor leaguers;

Heyward 238 games .318/.391/.508 899 OPS .12 HR Rate .53 RBI Rate
Montero 257 Games .325/.379/.509 888 OPS .14 HR Rate .68 RBI Rate

Not listed is Heyward's superior SB numbers but we all know Jesus is not the athlete that Heyward is but so far in their careers he has been up to par as a hitter. Also, it isn't like Jesus has done his damage at rookie ball with Heyward mashing AAA pitching. Their games played by level is very close - Montero Rookie 33, A 132, A+ 48, AA 44 and Heyward Rk 12, A 120, A+ 56, AA 47 and AAA 3. So Jesus has put up similar numbers, at the same age and at the same levels as Heyward. So Yankee fans can be jealous of Heyward's total package but as far as being the top power prospect in the game goes, don't count out Jesus. in other words, Jesus lives!

2010 Predictions

With opening day tomorrow it's time to make our predictions for the upcoming year:

AL East
1. Yanks
2. Rays
3. Sox
4. O's
5. Blue Jays

Losing Matsui and Damon would hurt, except that Granderson will more than make up for the loss of Damon, and a full year of Arod + Nick Johnson should help mitigate the loss of HMat. Add Javy Vazquez to an already potent staff that includes my Cy Young winner in AJ Burnett, and the Yanks are the clear favorites.

The Sox have a formidable starting staff, and as has been talked about on the Worldwide Leader ad nauseum their D is improved, but if you can't score runs it just doesn't matter! The Rays have a more balanced attack and will take the wild card.

AL Central

1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. Indians

The White Sox's starting pitching is deep and very good and their pen is one of the best in the game. Expect a full powerhouse season from Carlos Quentin and a bounce-back from Alex Rios.

AL West

1. Angels
2. Texas
3. M's
4. A's

This is the toughest division to call. The Angels lost some significant pieces, the Ranger pitching is suspect, and the Mariners will have problems scoring runs. Until someone unseats the Angels it's tough to pick against them.

NL East

1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Nationals
5. Mets

The Phillies are the clear 2nd best team in all of baseball. The Mets are like an addict that has been able to hold on to their job with a tenuous grasp...this is the year it all falls apart and they hit rock bottom.

NL Central

1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Cubs
4. Pirates
5. Astros

The 1/2 punch of Carpenter and Wainwright plus the best hitter in all of baseball give the Cards the easiest division in baseball.

NL West

1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

It will be a dogfight in the NL West between the Dodgers, Rockies and Giants. The Giants lose out because of a lack of offense and a drop off by Cy Lincecum. Clayton Kershaw becomes a monster for the Dodgers, but the Rockies will be too tough for them to beat.

AL Wild Card - Tampa Rays
NL Wild Card - Atlanta Braves

AL MVP - Evan Longoria
NL MVP - Troy Tulowitzki
AL Cy Young - AJ Burnett
NL Cy Young - Doc Halliday
AL Breakout player - BJ Upton
NL Breakout player - Chase Headley

Playoffs-

Yanks over Angels
Rays over White Sox
Yanks over Rays

Phils over Cards
Rockies over Braves
Phillies over Rockies

World Series
Yanks over Phillies

Looking Back before we Go Forward

Today is the last day of the offseason and everyone has now published their 2010 predictions. I thought it would be a good time to take a look back at the experts 2009 predictions to help put things in perspective.

ESPN
ESPN has the advantage of the sheer volume of analysts so you figure someone would have nailed at least the world series match up. Wrong.
How about AL MVP? Well in the AL not a single expert picked Mauer.
AL Cy Young? 0 for again, 3 ESPN staffers actually chose Liriano and his 5.80 era.
AL Rookie of the year? Thw worldwide leader again strikes out.
Also, 5 of the ESPNers picked the Cubs to make the series...

Sporting News
TSN actually nails all of the AL playoff teams and picks the Yankees to win it all. Not too bad but the also picked the Cubs to make the series.

Sports Illustrated
In the official preview edition SI picked the Cubs to lead the NL in wins and the Yankees to set the pace in the AL. The series match they predicted was Mets versus Angels. SI also listed picks from each of their experts. % out of 13 picked the Cubs to make the series while only 2 picked the Yanks( the same amount who picked the Diamondbacks!). Worst Cy Young award pick goes to Albert Chen who jumped on the ESPN Liriano band wagon.

So what does this all tell us? Don't believe a damn word of these predictions. Also beware Cubs love because for some reason it seems analysts love to pick the Cubs.

PECOTA's on Crack

Let's ignore the fact that they have had to update their projections at least twice due to some kind of issue (Yanks 3rd? Yeah, better re-do!) - but a projected 836 runs scored for the '10 Yanks?

The Yanks scored 915 runs last year and allowed 753. While Vazquez should help the runs allowed number I doubt it gets as low as the 707 they project.

A drop of 79 runs scored, though, would be a big number. Yes, we lost Damon and Matsui, but Granderson's production will cancel out Damon, and a whole year of Arod + Nick Johnson should make up for the loss of Matsui.

(h/t RAB)

Rob Dibble is Dumb as Dirt

Being the baseball nut that I am, I listen to XM Radio's 'Home Plate' channel just about every time I'm in the car. Most of the on-air talent is pretty good; Jody MacDonald and Jim Duquette in particular. Among the on-air talent is former Red closer and 'Bad Boy' Rob Dibble.

While I never begrudge anyone their opinion (even when they are avid Yankee-haters...Russo!), I do have an issue with pure idiocy.

During the off-season discussion about Doc Halliday, there was much talk about him being traded to the Yanks. Dibble, in his infinite wisdom, stated that if the Yanks were to trade for Doc commissioner Selig should step in and reverse the trade using the 'best interests of baseball' powers afforded the commissioner.

Dibble went on to say that there was actually precedent for the commish to do this pointing to the reversal of Charley Finley's sale of players for cash in the 1970's. In 1976 A's owner Charlie Finley attempted to sell his 3 best players Vida Blue (to the Yanks), Rollie Fingers and Joe Rudi (to the Red Sox) for a total of $3.5mm. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn stepped in and disallowed the sale stating that it was not in the best interest of baseball. He did so as the A's were not attempting in any way to better their team; rather, A's owner Finley was simply trying to line his pockets by selling off players.

First, there is a HUGE difference between what Finley was doing and what the Yanks would have been doing had they traded for Halliday. My 6 year old can see the difference, and Dibble can't?

Second, if the commissioner starts stepping in and blocking trades what would be next...mandatory player transfers? 'The Yanks are too good, so let's move Arod to the Pirates and Tex to the Nationals'.

I tried to call the show and discuss the lunacy of what Dibble was saying with him on the air, but once they heard what I wanted to discuss the screener hung up while I was in mid-sentence.

How Bad for the Yankees is Arod's Contract?

After the 2007 season Alex Rodriguez signed a 10 year $275 million contract. For a player with a single team bidding entering his age 32 season this was quite the player friendly contract. Before Arod signed with the Yankees the lack of interest around baseball was significant enough that the MLB player association discussed filing a grievance. So while the Yankees might have overpaid how much have they overpaid? First lets get an idea of the production you can expect from Arod for the duration of the contract. Baseball Think Factory ran some rough projections before the 2008 season, I have replaced the 2008 and 2009 numbers with his actual production;

The RBI numbers will probably drop as Arod goes from a 3-4 hitter to a bit lower in the lineup as he ages. 2013-2017 seem to the big issue. Arod project to be a slightly above average player for most of the time(the average OPS in 2009 was .758) while most likely remaining the top paid player in baseball. You add in the potential 20 million a year Jeter will require for a 4 year extensions and the Yankees could be dishing out 50 million a year in 2013 and 2014 for below average players. They will have an additional 47 million invested in CC and Texieira. Texieria will only be 33 in 2014 and CC 32 so you can expect a fairly high level of production from those two. However the 2013/2014 Yankees will have 100 million in 4 players, possibly achieving only slightly above average production from those 4 spots.

Essentially what the Arod contract has forced the Yankees into is a budget minded approach where they will have to produce cheap players from within their own system. If they do not even the Yankees don't have the financially ability to spend their way into contention. As we get deeper into Arod's contract it will get worse and worse. I know this one is supposedly on Hank but Cashman has to get some blame here too.

But how bad is the contract? Ask me again when Arod is a 41 year old DH producing below average production while making 32 million a year....

The Joba Saga Just Won't Go Away

As the Yankees enter 2010 the team is pretty much set.
The infield spots are rock set in stone;
1b-Texiera
2b-Cano
SS-Jeter
3b-Arod
The OF is now also set, even though the roles and positions could change slightly with Granderson switching to LF and Gardner switching to CF. Also, Winn could potentially get some ABs as a LH if Gardner struggles;
RF-Swisher
CF-Granderson
LF-Gardner/Winn vs Lefties
DH and Catcher are also settled;
C-Posada
DH-Johnson
The rotation has 4 spots settled with AJ, CC, Vasquez and Andy. Throw in Mo closing and there is only two spots of significance left up for debate; 8th inning reliever and 5th starter. This is why the Joba saga just won't go away. If Joba starts and succeeds and 8th inning is a struggle you will here the talk that Joba needs to go to the pen. If the 5th starter struggles with Joba in the pen you have to question why the Yankees suffered through Joba rules only to give up on them so quickly.

With noting else to really debate on this team the radio waves and newspapers will be flush with recycled arguments in both directions. Is there anything that can save us from the same old story here? I don't think so, there is the possibility Joba can dominate as a starter and Phil will do the same in the 8th inning but even then you will hear the whispers. If either struggle the whispers become a roar. So Yankee fans prepare to roll your eyes through months of the Joba debate (again!), hopefully THIS is the last year and next year we can move on to bigger and better things. But as we approach 2010 come to the realization that the Joba debate is here to stay.

Were the Tigers Selling High on Granderson?

When the Tigers unloaded Granderson earlier this offseason it was widely believed they were unloading salary. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs said at the time;
" The Tigers aren't as good today as they were yesterday, but they did manage to shed some payroll...."
Makes sense the Tigers were shedding payroll and restocking with MLB ready talent. But then word comes of the Jose Valverde signing, 2 years and 14 million. Valverde will make the same salary in 2010 as Curtis Granderson. Also, there are rumors of Detroit being in on Damon. So what gives?

The only possible explanation is that Detroit was selling high on Granderson believing that his 2009 was closer to the player he is and his stellar 2007 was the aberration. With clubs still viewing him as the player the saw in 2007 Detroit unloaded him when they had the chance. His salary in 2010 is very reasonable but it climbs to 8.5 in 2011 and 10 million in 2011. If he had another year like 2009 the tigers would have gotten almost nothing back in return for him after the 2010 season.

Now obviously the Yankees feel that Granderson is closer to the 2007 version of himself or they wouldn't have made the trade. However, you have to wonder if the Tigers were watching him every day and felt he was possibly on decline were the Yankees possibly wrong here? Did they buy a player on decline? We will see how it plays out but maybe this deal isn't the slam duck we thought it was at the time.

1998 - A look Back

1998 was a banner year for baseball. Of course Yankees fans will remember the Yankees dominating the regular season on their way to the World Series. It was also an expansion year featuring new teams in Arizona and Tampa Bay. There were great individual performances as David Wells pitched a perfect game, Kerry Woods K's 20, Roger Clemens K's 18 and then, of course, there were the home runs.

We all remember Sosa and McGwire but 98 was also the first year in baseball history were 4 players hit more then 50 home runs as Greg Vaughn(!) and Ken Griffey jr. joined Sosa and Big Mac. So now that McGwire has admitted what we already knew how does 1998 hold up to hindsight? For starters the top players were clearly cheating as six of the top ten in the MVP voting were most likely on steroids in the NL(Sosa, Big Mac, Vaughn, Biggio, Galarraga,Bonds) and seven of the top ten in the AL(Juan Gonzalez, Nomar, Mo Vaughn, Manny, Albert Belle, Arod and Pudge).

For the Yankees, you also have to wonder how many players were doing steroids with Knoblauch and Pettitte already linked. As hard as it is to admit you have to wonder about some of the Yankees other top players. What about Bernie, Paulie, and even Tino? Any name linked to steroids (outside of Jeter but maybe that is even being naive) would not surprise me.

So now we have the top players and the top team linked to steroids.

So this is where the difficult part of the steroid era really comes into play. If the players and teams who succeeded during this period were clearly cheating what do we do with the records and the accomplishments of this time? Do we discount it all or do we simply take the stance that everyone cheated and call it even?

For the Yankees, I have come to the conclusion that the Yankees were the best team of the era with some of the best players. There is no way that most of the other top players were cheating but the Yankees core was not. However, the shear number of players who are being outed make it hard to discount or even taint the accomplishment of a team when they were clearly competing against other steroid using teams. Using that same logic you have to say the same for McGwire as well. He was facing opponents that were doing the same things he was. So basically the best then we still need to consider the best now. Sure those who were clean faced a competitive disadvantage and it isn’t fair to those players but I am not willing to complete throw those years out.

Knowing what we know now we either accept the timeframe for what it was or wipe it out completely. I am not willing to erase those year so Bonds, Big Mac, Sosa and 125 wins should stand forever in the record books and the Hall of Fame.

It is time to accept the period for what it was and move on.

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