For anyone who missed it Basball Prospectus came out with their projections for 2008. Here is how they have the AL East breaking down:
NY Yankees 97 Wins
Boston Red Sox 90
Tampa Rays 89
Toronto Blue Jays 78
Baltimore Orioles 66
The Yankees have exceeded their Pecota projections for the last two years and the Rays have significantly underacheived theirs. However, they probably have the most accurate projection system out there and 7 games is a significant number. You need a subscription to access the Yankees page but the Red Sox' is free . The issue with the Red Sox is PECOTA sees their pitching as extremely average after Beckett, and their hitters don't project to be anything special.
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