More Proof MacNamee is a Liar?

In his interview with investigators from the Mitchell Report, Brian MacNamee stated that Roger Clemes first asked him about steroids after speaking with Jose Canseco at a luncheon at Jose's house in 1998.

Yesterday, Roger's lawyers stated that they have proof that Clemens was nowhere near the lunch party in question.

Does this prove Clemens never did PEDs? No. But what it does do is offer further proof that Brian MacNamee is a liar and that NOTHING the man says can be taken seriously.

I believe the whole Clemens thing started something like this-

Government investigators got MacNamee's name from Randomski and sat him down. They told him that he was going to go to jail unless he was honest with them. MacNamee proceeded to tell about Pettitte and Knoblauch. Investigators then said something to the effect of - 'We know Clemens did steroids too...you had better tell us about him too or it's off to jail with you.' So MacNamee did what they wanted - he made up a bunch of crap on Roger to make them happy and to stay out of jail.

When Roger started fighting back, however, MacNamee got nervous that he was going to jail for lying about Roger and started adding to his lies so that he looked more like he was telling the truth.

Now, MacNamee is boxed into a corner...he lied about Roger but if he comes clean he will not only lose the defemation suit and any money he makes for the rest of his life, but also go to jail for a long time.

Truely, I have no idea if Roger used or not. What I am sure of, however, is that I am not going to condemn a man and soil an otherwise pristine reputation, on the word of an obvious liar like Brian MacNamee. Therefore, unless and until there is more than just MacNamee saying Roger used, I am (and think everyone else should too) give Roger the benefit of the doubt.

Edwar the Great

We currently have a group equal to the populus of an island nation ready to compete for spots in the bullpen this spring. When all is said and done, I believe Edwar Ramirez will emerge as the stud 8th inning guy the Yanks have been lacking (sans Joba The Beast). Having a go-to, dominant, strikeout pitch is the main ingredient to being a dominant big league reliever, and Edwar certainly has one in his change.

First, PECOTA loves him. 76 ks in 60 ip and a 3.61 era are projections every Yankees fan would happily sign for. Scouts all agree that Edwar's changeup is a 'plus, plus' pitch scoring an 80 on the 20-80 scale. The quality of this pitch can be seen in the 31 ks in 21 major league ip in 2007.

Second, Edwar will be 27 in spring training this year. The 31 ip Edwar threw last year were his first in the bigs; he is the perfect age for a break out.

The best comp for Edwar is probably Keith Foulke. Foulke had (has?) the same kind of changeup as Edwar. Foulke likewise struggled a little bit early in his career as he searched for the proper complimentary pitch to go with his great change. Once Foulke was able to spot his 85-88 mph fastball effectively he became a dominant reliever. I believe Edwar will do the same. When you have the dominant pitch, your other pitches need only be average to keep hitters honest. A little Mo 'cut', a little Wang sink, or simply being able to spot his fastball better will give Edwar the secondary pitch he needs to be a top reliever.

Now that Gator has been replaced by someone who can actually make additive changes to a pitcher, and with the first year under his belt, I believe Edwar will become a dominant force in the Yankee pen for a long time to come.

Cashman Overstepping?

A little more on Cash's statement that Moose will begin the year in the rotation.

I understand that Joe G is a new manager for the Yanks. I also understand that Brian might be feeling a little impotent with Hank taking the spotlight on the Johan debacle. But unless Cashman is prepared to send one of the Big 3 to SWB isn't it Girardi's decision who pitches and when?

If Cash wants to limit The Beast's (Joba's) innings, then he can have Girardi start Joba in the pen. If he REALLY wants Moose to start he can send Ikky (IPK) to SWB to start the season. Short of that it is General Joe's decision who the starting 5 are and comments such as those posted by PA only serve to undermine Joe G...don't you agree?

Cashman:Mussina in the Rotation

According to Peter Abraham;

Cashman said that Wang, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina are in the rotation.
The other two spots are open. At some point, Chamberlain will have his innings restricted. That could come in a variety of ways including being used in the bullpen. “We have to see how it all plays out,” Cashman said. “But Joba will prepare as a starter.”

I really thought we had seen the end of Mike Mussina's days in the Yankee Rotation. Take a look at Moose's ERA the last four years;
4.59
4.41
3.51
5.15
Take out the walk year abberation and Moose has been a bad pitcher for some time now. It is time for Moose to join the ranks of the National League or slip into his spot as a long reliever. Hearing Cashman say that he is in makes me cringe. I only hope that this is the plan to start the season as a way to avoid Joba's innings limit(~160) and once the calendar turns to June, Joba takes over every fifth day.

Whew!

As you know by now, our favorite self-promoter may be out for the season with a shoulder injury. As Yankees fans we need to thank the gods of timing on this one.

Had this happened 2 weeks earlier I bet Theo would have had a lot more to say when Bill Smith called looking for a final offer for Johan!

Red Light Done?

The Boston Herald is reporting that Curt 'Red Light' Schilling may be out for the season due to a shoulder injury that may or may not need surgery. There is talk of the Red Sox trying to void Curt's one year deal as they are claiming he knew about the injury when he signed.

This is obviously a repetitive motion injury - incurred through years and years of patting himself on the back.

MacNamee MUST be Joking!

Are you kidding me? Syringes, swabs and gauze from 2000 and 2001?

First of all, why the hell would he keep these things when, at the time, Roger was not only ManNamee's meal ticket, but was also "teaching (him) how to be a father and a man"?

Secondly, DNA on a syringe swab and/or gauze means only that it touched Roger at some point. When it touched him was it full of B12? Lidocaine? Who knows?

This not only proves nothing, but makes MacNamee look a lot worse.

Sometimes the Best Deals...

are definately the ones you don't make!

Consider for a moment, how happy Dave Dombrowski must be-

Had he accepted, Juan Gonzalez would still be playing out the final years of his 8 (!) year extension from the Tigers!

Rocket Denies in Front of Congress

At his testamony yesterday, Roger Clemens, again, denied ever using PEDs.

“It was great to be able to tell them what I’ve been saying all along - that I’ve never used steroids or growth hormone,” he said.

While we have yet to watch him say it in front of congress, this statement would undoubtedly be refuted by someone at the deposition if it weren't true. Simply making this statement would leave Roger open to legal issues if it were not true.

I am now going on record that I absolutely believe Roger.

Someone outside of the Commssioner's office needs to investigate the Mitchell report. Not only was it unbelievably incomplete and centered only on NY, but Roger's sworn testimony in front of congress leads me to believe it is inaccurate as well.

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Worth Another Look!

Which Numbers to Retire from The Dynasty?

Brian Cashman recently mentioned that the Yanks are going to come up with set parameters for determining whose numbers to retire going forward. In response, let's take a look at the dynasty years and which numbers should be retired.

2 - Jeter
An easy one. Not only will Jeet be the last to wear #2 for the Yanks, but he is a first ballot Hall of Famer.

6 - Torre
Objectively this one is a no brainer as well, though subjectively I have reservations. When you compare Joe to the other retired managers his inclusion looks obvious. For some reason, though, I have never been a huge Torre fan. In fairness to Joe T, though, 6 will be retired.

20 - Posada
Jorge has been an underappreciated major part of all the success the Yanks have had the last 12 years. 5 Silver Sluggers, 2 top 6 MVPs and continually improving defense behind the plate make for one hell of a career. As only the 5th catcher in MLB history to hit 300 or more HR, it would be wrong if Jorge gets into the Hall but not monument park. #20 is off the market.

21 - O'Neill
A much more emotional case can be made for Paulie. His double and slide into second in '97, his catch of Polonia's line drive with a bum hammy, all of the O'Neill bulls-eyes in the right field stands, and all of the clutch hits and passion for the game make O'Neill someone Yankees fans adore. Compared to other retired numbers, however, Paulie's .288 lifetime average, 281 HR and 1269 RBI fall short of retired number status.

51 - Bernie
Ah, Bernie - my favorite Yankee. His lifetime numbers are not all that different from O'Neill's - .297 BA, 287 HR, 1257 RBI. Where Bernie sets himself apart is in the postseason. Included in his .275 lifetime avg in the postseason is utter dominance in the ALCS. .321 avg, .413 OBP and .549 SLG; a .962 OPS against the best pitching in the AL is certainly a factor.

Bernie almost single-handedly beat Baltimore in '96 with a .474 BA, .583 OBP, and .947 SLG (DAMN!) and Seattle in 2000 .435 avg, .481 OBP, .609 SLG. He posted a .400 avg, .429 OBP and .720 SLG vs Florida in 2003 and ranks either 1st or second in postseason history in the following catagories: games, at bats, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, HR, RBI, walks and extra base hits.

Also setting Bernie apart from O'Neill is the fact that Bernie is a career Yankee. Paulie's 17 years were split 8 with the Reds, 9 with the Yanks. Bernie obviously played all 16 season with the Yanks. 4 Gold Gloves, a silver slugger, 5 All-Star games and 6 top 20 appearances for MVP and Bernie's #51 belongs in Monumnet Park.

46- Andy Pettitte
This one would be soooo much easier if only Andy hadn't defected for 3 years. While there is still time for more great moments and numbers, Andy is among the most successful home-grown pitchers in the illustrious Yankee history. #46 is off the market.

24- Tino Martinez
Another of the most beloved Yankee figures of the time. Who can forget Tino's grannie off Mark Langston game 1 1998 (after taking what should have been strike 3)? Again, I and Yankees fans in general, love Tino, but the numbers and years with the Yanks are just not there. Tex gets 24 next year. 42- Retired by all of baseball to honor Jackie Robinson, number 42 would never have been worn again anyway. Quite possibly the first HOF'er elected unanimously, Mo is not only the greatest reliever, but also greatest postseason pitcher in history.

22- Roger Clemens
While he only pitched for the Yanks for 6 years, Roger could choose to enter the Hall with a Yankees cap on. Should he do this there is no way the Yanks won't give him a day and plaque.

So Bernie, Andy, Jorge, Torre, Jeter, Mo and maybe Rocket get plaques in monument park, and O'Neill and Tino don't.

Bandwagon Rudy

It may be a little tough to see in this picture, but Topps created a card with Rudy G celebrating on the field with the Red Sox.

Proof positive that politicians will say ANYTHING to get elected!

Bellichump needs some class

Between his monosyllabic post-game interview, and leaving the field before the game was over last night, Bill Bellichek yet again showed himself a classless sore loser.

Congrats to the Giants for completely outplaying and outcoaching the Pats.

Hey Bill - there's a big difference between despising losing, and completely lacking class and grace. Your parents must be so proud.

Melky (could become) MUCH More Than a 4th OF

As a part of the Johan discussions, a lot of people penned the opinion that Melky Cabrera is nothing more than a 4th OF and will never develop into a top center fielder. I completely disagree, and have 2 comps to use as reasons.

Melky won't turn 23 until July 2008 still putting him in the top 30 of the youngest players in all of baseball. We forget just how young Melky is, and that he therefore has significant upside still to realize.

Melky - 286 games, 1024 AB
Player B- 283 games, 1178 AB
Player C - 271 games, 1017 AB

Melky - 15 HR (1 HR every 68 AB)
Player B - 20 HR (1 HR every 59 AB)
Player C - 11 HR (1 HR every 92 AB)

In a very similar number of games and AB, player B showed a touch more power than the Melk man, and player C a touch less; either way, none draw Bambino comparisons. Power is typically the last tool to develop (as B and C will show); being comfortable enough at the plate to try and drive the ball instead of just trying to make enough contact to get a hit comes in time.

Melky - 99 BB/129 K (.767 BB per K)
Player B- 130 BB/199 K (.653 BB per K)
Player C - 31 BB/118 K9 (.26 BB per K)

During the early part of a player's career, pitch recognition is paramount. Therefore, the ratio of walks per strikeout is an excellent measure of how well a young player is handling the bat. Player B improved to the tune of a .88 for his career; a 35% improvement (player C remained approx 2:1 K/BB). Should Melky experience the same percentage increase as player B he will be walking more than once for every K.

Melky - .275 BA, .340 OBP, .388 SLG
Player B -.262 BA, .340 OBP, .393 SLG
Player C - .285 BA, .310 OBP, .387 SLG

There is absolutely nothing here to say that either player B or C looked like they were going to develop any differently than Melky.

Lifetime stats -


Player B - .297 BA, .381 OBP, .477 SLG, career 125 OPS+ 5 time All Star over 16 seasons

Player C - .317 BA, .359 OBP, .475 SLG, career 130 OPS+, 15 time All Star over 18 seasons


So player B had a career OPS 25% above MLB average for his career, and player C 30% above MLB average for his career, while both started almost exactly like Melky.

Both player B and C were borderline hall of famers (C made it and B has not).

Again, the point of all of this is that it is WAY too early to start calling Melky a 4th outfielder. While projecting players using comp beginnings is pretty much akin to mental masturbation, there is still plenty of time for Melky to develop into an offensive force in center field.





Player B -

Player C -

Curt Schilling Inexplicably Bleeding Throughout Game 3 Start

After this start, Schilling immediately sent his bloody jersey to the Hall of Fame and said of his own performance " I just don't know how I do it, but I am quite a gamer, huh?"

Picture and headline courtesy of The Onion

The End of the Johan Watch, The Beginning of a Dynasty?

The Johan Santana saga will be looked back upon and thought of in one of two ways: as the day the Yankees finally changed their ways and began investing in young talent, or the day the Yankees let the best pitcher on the planet get away. Either way this is clearly a turning point for the franchise. In years past the Yankees would have backed the truck up and given the Twins whatever they wanted for Johan - Hughes, Kennedy, Tabata and how about Joba too? This is clearly a new Yankee era - the Post George era.

We have three top prospects that will determine our season in 2008 and they will be determining a lot more - how the franchise is run from here on out. If they flop, permanent damage could be done to the 'build from within' strategy that Cashman has been preaching. Let's say they turn out to be mediocre, and also the 'bullpen by a committee of prospects' fails, the George will come out in Hank. Hal will no longer be able to control him and with over $60 million + coming off the books after 08 there will be nothing from stopping an old fashion George-like shopping spree. Once again the Yankees could end up an old, expensive, passionless team made of high paid mercenaries.

However, if the big three turn out to be legit players and contribute to Yankee success this year with promise of more, the whole dynamic of the team changes. The Yankees can then spend excessively on free agents that fill a spot of weakness - say a Mark Texiera for first base - and still maintain a young core that plays with passion and allows for some roster flexibility. Instead of watching the Giambis and Kevin Browns of the world play out the end of their overpaid contracts, we can see Austin Jackson and Humberto "The Dirty" Sanchez try and make their mark. Also, without the burden of large contracts you can have open competition and if a player cannot perform someone else will be given a shot. If you have a pitcher that is making $20 million dollars a year he is going to get a spot, even if we all know he can't handle it (see Brown, Kevin and Vasquez, Javier).

So the Johan watch and the fact the Yankees walked away (I guess the deadline was legit after all) is a clear turning point in Yankee history. Now while it might take more then a year to really know if it was the right move, expect the Steinbrenners to make up their minds based on this year entirely. So as we watch the big three this year, remember you are not only rooting for them to succeed and this year's pennant, you are rooting for the future make of the franchise.

Last Word on Santana - A little Imagination Goes a Long Way

Is anyone else scratching their head that the Twins got more for Matt Garza (Delmon Young) than for Johan Santana?

Certainly Billy Beane got a ton more for a lesser pitcher in Dan Haren, and the O's look to get more for Erik Bedard (if psycho-Angelos gives his blessing).

In one respect we are all being extremely unfair to Bill Smith. Both Haren and Bedard are signed for at least a couple of years at reasonable prices and Johan is demanding the moon and stars to waive his no-trade. But that begs a question: As the Twins were willing to go 5 years and $100mm for Johan, couldn't Smith have dramatically increased his potential trading partners - and also the return he got from the trade - by sending some cash along with Johan?

I know, I know, the Twins are a small mkt team and the strategy I recommend is exclusively a big market, Yankee/Red Sox/Mets/Angels strategy. But consider this - Smith was willing and able to spend $13mm this year and $20mm next to have Santana. While I don't know this, but if sending $20mm along with Johan to the Dodgers could have netted the Twins Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp wouldn't it have been worth it?

Assume Johan signs for 6 years $120mm. If the Twins send $20mm to the team that traded for him, the resulting deal is 6 years $100 million, or $16.66mm per year. While still not chump change, it may have been a big enough difference to maybe get the Dodgers, Cardinals, Angels, White Sox, Cubs and/or Mariners to the table along with the Mets, Yanks and Sox.

The reason Smith got as little as he did was the lack of someone bidding against the Mets; a little cash and imagination and he could have had multiple offers to negotiate with and ultimately to choose from.

The best GMs are those that not only play the trade game well, but also have the imagination to find ways to get the most from their trade chips. I think a little more imagination would have gone a long way toward the Twins getting a respectable return for Santana.

Super Bowl XLII

As both a New Yorker and a Yankees fan, I am obviously pulling HARD for the Giants to beat the Pats Sunday. While the real damage was done in Oct, it would add fuel to the Boston fan fire should the Pats go undefeated.

In reality, though, I do think the Giants have a shot on Sunday. I think the Giants' game plan will be to get as much pressure on Brady as possible and hope to limit the inevitable big plays downfield. It will come down to whether the Giant secondary can keep the receivers in front of them and make quick tackles on the passes underneath.

I believe either one of two things will happen-

1. The Giant D will get to Brady early and often and cause a couple of tunovers. If they can do this, and if Jacobs and Bradshaw can run the ball early, I think at worst the Giants cover the 12 points and at best have a shot to win. It is really important that the Giant D limit the damage early so that the game doesn't come down to Eli throwing the ball 25 times in the first half. If they can do these things - 35-31 Giants

2. If the Pats find a way to give Brady time, or if the Giants are unable to limit the damage underneath early in the game (missed tackles), it could get really ugly. A 24 point first half would put keep the Giants from being able to run the ball and put the game out of reach. This would result in a Pat's blowout; 42-17 Pats.

The real pressure in this game is on the Giant front 4. If they get to Brady and allow full coverage the Giants could win the game. If the Giants are forced to blitz and get into a lot of single coverage situations the chances for a blowout are real.

It is High...

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