The Joba Saga Just Won't Go Away

As the Yankees enter 2010 the team is pretty much set.
The infield spots are rock set in stone;
1b-Texiera
2b-Cano
SS-Jeter
3b-Arod
The OF is now also set, even though the roles and positions could change slightly with Granderson switching to LF and Gardner switching to CF. Also, Winn could potentially get some ABs as a LH if Gardner struggles;
RF-Swisher
CF-Granderson
LF-Gardner/Winn vs Lefties
DH and Catcher are also settled;
C-Posada
DH-Johnson
The rotation has 4 spots settled with AJ, CC, Vasquez and Andy. Throw in Mo closing and there is only two spots of significance left up for debate; 8th inning reliever and 5th starter. This is why the Joba saga just won't go away. If Joba starts and succeeds and 8th inning is a struggle you will here the talk that Joba needs to go to the pen. If the 5th starter struggles with Joba in the pen you have to question why the Yankees suffered through Joba rules only to give up on them so quickly.

With noting else to really debate on this team the radio waves and newspapers will be flush with recycled arguments in both directions. Is there anything that can save us from the same old story here? I don't think so, there is the possibility Joba can dominate as a starter and Phil will do the same in the 8th inning but even then you will hear the whispers. If either struggle the whispers become a roar. So Yankee fans prepare to roll your eyes through months of the Joba debate (again!), hopefully THIS is the last year and next year we can move on to bigger and better things. But as we approach 2010 come to the realization that the Joba debate is here to stay.

Joba Hurt?

I know the results were good tonight and the radar gun even lit up 95 a couple of times but this is still not the Joba we saw last year. Here are the pitch fx numbers;

Avg fastball Speed - 92.76
Max Speed - 96.3

Not bad numbers but compare that to last years starts;

Best Avg FB Speed - 95.51
Worst ang FB speed - 94.57
Total Avg FB as starter - 95.00

Best Max Speed - 99.6
Worst Max Speed - 97.8
Average Max Speed - 98.86

So where is the other 2 mph? Those 2 are what take him from a very good pitcher to a once in a generation talent. His average FB as a starter last year would put him second in the majors behind only Justin Verlander while his 2009 average only puts him in the top 20. So the question that needs answering is why the drop in velocity? Is he hurt? Is it poor mechanics? Whats the deal with Joba?

How is Joba's fastball doing?

One of the big questions with Joba moving to the rotation was how would his fastball velocity be affected by the additional innings. The premise being that Joba the reliever was going at maximum effort for 1 or 2 innings and Joba the starter would not be able to maintain that level of effort.

So we start with Joba's velocity as a reliever which was third best in baseball at 95.8 miles per hour on average.

As a starter Joba's fastball actually rates a little better, tied for first in baseball among starters but down a bit at 94.9 miles per hour.

But what about his velocity late in games?His late start against Oakland ended like this;
95 mph Fastball
96 mph Fastball
100 mph Fastball
98 mph Fastball

Joba is the real deal as a starter or a reliever. He stuff translates well to starting or relieving.

He is the kind of prospect that comes along once every 20 years. Wherever he is it is something special to watch.

Cashman:Mussina in the Rotation

According to Peter Abraham;

Cashman said that Wang, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina are in the rotation.
The other two spots are open. At some point, Chamberlain will have his innings restricted. That could come in a variety of ways including being used in the bullpen. “We have to see how it all plays out,” Cashman said. “But Joba will prepare as a starter.”

I really thought we had seen the end of Mike Mussina's days in the Yankee Rotation. Take a look at Moose's ERA the last four years;
4.59
4.41
3.51
5.15
Take out the walk year abberation and Moose has been a bad pitcher for some time now. It is time for Moose to join the ranks of the National League or slip into his spot as a long reliever. Hearing Cashman say that he is in makes me cringe. I only hope that this is the plan to start the season as a way to avoid Joba's innings limit(~160) and once the calendar turns to June, Joba takes over every fifth day.

Joba vs. Clay

Espn is doing a series of articles and chats that compares two different players. One such chat covers Joba Chamberlain versus Clay Buchholtz. Some intestesting stuff from the chat;

We talked to nine non-Red Sox or Yankees personnel people, and the verdict was decidedly pro-Joba. While most baseball talent evaluators predict stardom for both pitchers, seven of the nine preferred Chamberlain.

Chamberlain's fastball and slider both grade out near 80 on the 20-80 scouts scale

Joba's curve ranges from above average to hellacious depending on the day. His changeup is a work in progress.

Buchholz had an off field issue at McNeese State where he was arrested for stealing some computers.

I went into this with an open mind, and people whose opinions I respect -- scouting directors, talent evaluators who saw both guys in the Eastern League, etc. -- gave the nod to Chamberlain by a substantial margin. That doesn't mean Buchholz won't be terrific, or even that Joba will be better than Buchholz. But I was surprised at the pro-Joba level of sentiment out there.

So basically Joba Rules and Clay is a convict.

Also, another item of note;

A couple of scouts told me they actually prefer Jeff Marquez -- the other prospect whose name was mentioned in the Yankees' Johan Santana package -- to Kennedy.

The more people bash Ian the more I start believing in him. I watched a Yankees Magazine piece on him and his wife and you get the idea that he is grounded and intelligent. I think people are making the typical mistake of valuing velocity too much and not putting enough weight into pitching ability and control.