Offensive Slumber

The Yankees are now 2-3, so much for avoiding the slow start this year. Last year was started with an exact mirror 2-3 record but the Yankees scored 6, 9 and 10 runs in three of those games. In all 5 games this year they have scored 4 runs or less - that matches the longest streak of scoring 4 or less runs from last year (April 24-29). Also, they only had three streaks of scoring four or less in at least 4 straight games all of last year. Immortals Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson basically shut down the Yankee attack making the argument used while facing the Jays about facing good pitching no longer hold true. Offensive slumps always look worse in the beginning of the year so lets just hope the pitching continues to be serviceable and the offense will come around.

Ikky was...well, Ikky

No need to panick...yes, Ikky got lit up last night.

The one thing you can take away from his terrible performance is that it was completely due to a lack of command that he did so poorly. If Ian had his control and got smacked around it would concern me a bit. The fact the he couldn't put any of his pitches where he wanted allows me to chalk it up as a night where he just didn't have it.

I think we'll see Ian perform much better Wednesday at KC.

The Beast

A-Rod Saga is Over

Based on the introductions last night and the general level of drama surrounding A-Rod this spring I really feel that the A-Rod soap opera is over. He has become simply the best player on our team and is no longer going to judged at-bat to at-bat. He isn't even the main story line this year, that is the performance of the kids. Jack Curry over at the times disagrees, but this is just another case of how the mainstream media misses the point. Curry titled his article "Rodriguez’s Opt-Out: A Mess That Sticks" but actually makes no concrete argument that the mess has indeed stuck. As a Yankee fan, and a former A-Rod hater, I can say that this is a non-story to me. A-Rod is here for 10 years and is the best player in baseball. The opt-out and drama of the offseason is no longer a story and I feel that most fans agree.

I wonder how much longer the media will try and make a story out of this? It is no longer one. A-Rod is officially a Yankee.

Melky Love Returns

All through the offseason the conversation centered on keeping The Big Three. The question was is Santana worth Hughes and Kennedy? Should we trade our pitching future for the here and now? The forgotten man in all of this was Melky Cabrera. Melky is one of those players who is worth a lot more to our team then his stats might say. He has the ability in infuse enthusiasm and energy into the corporate Yankee atmosphere and has a clear flare for the dramatic. I was reminded of how special a player Melky is last night watching a crisp, clean Yankee win and I just can't help but be grateful that the Santana trade fell through.

I understand why some say this season might have to be sacrificed while our young pitchers get settled (especially in the postseason), but the energy of Melky, combined with the promise of The Big Three, should be a lot more fun to watch over the next 10 years then another high priced mercenary.

2008 Predictions - Baseball Version

We previously made our predictions for Yankee-land, but it is time for my (Bombers GM may disagree) 2008 standings predictions.

AL East
Yankees 97-65
Red Sox 91-71
Blue Jays 89-73
Rays 82-80
Orioles 52-110

AL Central
Tigers 101-61
Indians 95-67 (WC)
Twins 84-68
Royals 81-81
White Sox 75-87

AL West
Mariners 92-70
Angels 90-72
Rangers 81-81
A's 75-87

NL
East - Phillies
Central - Cubs
West - D'Backs
WC - Mets

AL Playoffs
Mariners over Tigers
Yankees over Indians

Yanks over Mariners in 5

NL Playoffs
Phillies over D'Backs
Cubs over Mets

Cubs over Phillies in 7

WS - Yankees over Cubs

Cy Young-
AL - Rich Harden
NL - Johan Santana

MVP-
AL - A-Rod
NL - Derrick Lee

Trade 1 Bloggers FLB

As you may know, I am in a fantasy league with some other Yankee bloggers (check out the league here). The first trade of the season was accepted yesterday and I'd like to know what you think.

I send Bill Hall and Huston Street to Bronx Blockers for Curtis Granderson and Ted Lilly.

As I had Street, J. Soria and B. Wagner, I could afford to trade a closer, and with John Lackey on the DL I needed another starter. With K's/9 and XBH as stats I like Lilly and Granderson a lot.

What do you think?

The Time has Come

Today I woke up determined to spend an active day with the family; playing with the kids and talking with the wife.

Tonight I will kiss them all goodbye and tell them baseball is here so I will see them in November.

A Sad Man

A must read on our dear friend Jose Canseco, by Pat Jordan

Young Starters

A common theme in why the Yankees will miss the playoffs is the youth of their starters. However, if you take a look back at last year it was no different. The Yankees had the following "unproven" starts;

Starts - Player
13 - Phil Hughes
12 - Kei Igawa
6 - Tyler Clippard
6 - Matt Desalvo
6 - Darell Rasner
3 - Ian Kennedy
3 - Jeff Karstens
2 - Chase Wright
1 - Sean Henn

52 Total Starts by unproven Pitchers, of those 30 by pitchers with ERAs over 6 (in red). You have to expect at least a mild improvement from Hughes and if you increase his total to 25 starts he will absorb most of the 18 starts by Clemens at slightly above league average (Clemens had ERA+ of 107).

So that leaves about 40 starts needed by Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. You have to expect that those two can at least match the output of Igawa, Clippard, Desalvo, Karstens, Wright and Henn.

99% of Baseball Reporters are Members of Red Sox Nation

Rant time -

The anti-Yankee media bias is once again driving me nuts. There are 2 kinds of Yankee-killing pieces. The first is the kind that attempts to have a reason why the Yanks stink and the Sox are the best team ever. From Yahoo -

(the Sox are)...one of the best rosters in recent memory. Better than the Yankees, who are counting heavily on young pitchers and aging position players...

Sanity check -

Starting lineup average age Yanks - 28.7 years; Sox - 28.4 years

Rotation average age Yanks - 29.0 years; Sox - 29.0 years

(I included the older Yankee lineup with Hmat at DH and Giambi at 1B. If you put Duncan at DH the Yankee lineup is actually 28.1 years average - younger than the Sox'!)

Both teams employ older veterans, veterans in their prime, and youngsters in both the lineup and rotation. How is the Yanks situation age-wise any different from Boston's?

In the rotation you have one dependable, pretty much know-what-you're-gonna-get kind of guy - Becket and Wang (for all those who believe Beckett is sooo much better than Wang and is the definition of 'Ace,' click here); one probably too old veteran: Wakefield and Moose; one solid with question marks: Dice-k and Pettitte; and 2 kids with huge potential: Lester and Buchholz for the Sox, and Phil and Ikky for the Yanks.

The second kind of Yankee media slaughter is the 'because-I-said-so' piece.

From Fox Sports' Ian O'Connor

Now up is down and east is west. The Red Sox represent the world's leading superpower, and the Yankees only lead the league in one offensive category: wages paid.

Any transition period in the Bronx could be measured against the expansion of a dynasty in Boston.

More than anything, Hank and Girardi need to identify a vulnerability, an area of attack, in a New England program beginning to look as frighteningly efficient as Bill Belichick's

But they can't be taken seriously as a World Series favorite, not when the Red Sox are still dressing David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and still growing young prospects like Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, and still employing their former Marlins ace, Josh Beckett, after the Yankees had to write off theirs, Carl Pavano.

Wow - no hyperbole there, huh?

Red Sox are the leading superpower, a Dynasty, frighteningly efficient and have Ortiz, Ramirez, Paplepuss, Ellsbury and Pedroia, while the Yanks are vastly overpaid and have...Carl Pavano.

There are a couple of fair statistical agruments one could make to claim the Sox are better than the Yanks (all, of course, wrong). But when all you say is "The Yanks suck and the Sox rule," there's not much to hook your teeth into to make a counter argument, is there?

You'd figure after 40 years of being a Yankee fan I would get used to it. Even in the 80's and early 90's when the Yanks really did stink the media spent an undue amount of time reveling in the Yanks failures and pointing out just how bad they were.

At least now I have a blog where I can post rants about it...

Expert Predictions

Here is breakdown of some of the experts out there and what they predict in 08 for the Yankees;

• Yahoo - All three "experts" predict Yanks miss postseason
• SI - Yanks first in East, losing to Tigers in ALCS. Verducci actually has the guts to list last years predictions too.
• ESPN - Yanks 2nd in AL east by 4 out of 5 experts
• FoxSports - No predictions just a team breakdown

And the NY papers picks;

• Daily News - Out of 8 writers 3 say Yanks win WC, 1 Division and 4 predict we miss the playoffs
• LoHud- Yanks miss playoffs

I will update later as I expert a couple more released today but not an optimist outlook for your 2008 Yankees.

Update: Add XM radio to those picking the Yanks to miss the playoffs and Craig Carton of WFAN.

It's actually kind of nice to be the underdog for once.

Can Everyone Calm Down on the Devil Rays Please?

OK, I know the Devil Rays have some good young talent and some serious prospects in their system but the future is not now. I came across this article on TSN about the AL East Starting pitching. He uses PECOTA projections to compare the staffs. He goes on to say;
"Tampa Bay, however, stands a good chance of becoming the class of the AL East. The Rays show strength in eqERA and innings pitched at every level."
Now we also have seen the Devil Rays actually picked ahead of Toronto and Boston in certain projections lately. But let's take a step back and look at some numbers;

96 - the Number of loses by Tampa last Year
944- The number of runs given up by TB last year, worst in MLB (Almost 300 more then
Boston!!)
30- The number of games back the Rays were at the end of the year
0 - The number of innings Scott Kazmir has thrown this spring

Ok The Rays have made some moves this offseason to try get better;

Lost Delmon Young
Added Matt Garza, Troy Percival, Jason Bartlett, Cliff Floyd and Willie Aybar

Garza should help and Barltett is a solid BACKUP but Floyd and Percival were taken off the scrap heap. Percival is a power arm who averaged 91 Mph with his fastball last year. That might be enough to limp through the sixth inning in the NL central but in the AL east it is going to get ugly for him. Floyd is done. So have they improved? Garza is definitely an upgrade but you could argue the uncertainty of Kazmir and the loss of Young outweighs any gains from Garza.

The point is this is still a extremely flawed team and while it might be nice to believe they could start to turn it around this is not going to be they year the become a force. Talk to me 2010.

Edward Salcedo

There has been a lot of chatter in the Yankee blogesphere about Edward Salcedo and now we hear he might not be 16 after all. Also, the Yankees think he has signed with Cleveland. According to Yankee's Director of Latin American Scouting via Yankees.scout.com;

"He has signed with the Cleveland Indians for $2.9 Million. They evaluated him as that type of player and they're just waiting for clearance from the consulate."

Fare Thee Well, Ikky

I have a few flaws as pending GM of the New York Yankees. First, I am totally enamored with 'stuff.' A pitcher with a 95+ heater and a nasty secondary pitch will always look like the second coming to me. I tend to overrate stuff some of the time.

This has lead me to love the likes of Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver, but it has also lead me to draft a young reliever named Johan in my FLB league in 2003 and to be screaming for the Yanks to make a deal with Pittsburgh for a young Jason Schmidt.

A second flaw is my refusal to accept the premise of the 'injury-prone' player. For the most part, unless a player is in poor condition or is Carl Pavano, I typically see injuries as arbitrary occurances that typically are unlikely to recur.

The combination of these 2 flaws results in my constant yearning for the likes of Mark Prior, or in this case, Rich Harden.

Unbelievable stuff, a potential Ace, but hasn't made 30 starts in any of the last 3 years due to the injury bug and has only done so once in his career.

Harden was clocked at 98 in his last spring start and was dominant in his season opener vs the Sox - 6IP, 3H 1ER, 9Ks. The offseason surgery to clean out his shoulder has been termed successful and at that level of velocity and performance it seems he is fully recovered.

Harden won't be 27 until late in the '08 season, and is therefore only 3 1/2 years older than Ikky. Additionally, Harden cannot be a free agent until after the 2010 season. Kennedy is very much a Billy Beane type of pitcher - look at their previous 'Big 3', Hudson, Mulder and Zito. All 3 were excellent pitchers who lacked dominant stuff but pitched at a very high level (for the A's, anyway). I believe Kennedy will be this type of pitcher. I don't believe he will be an Ace, however. If he can stay healthy (and I realize it's a big IF), Harden has the ability to be the best pitcher in baseball - even including the newcomer in Queens.

A trade with the A's has been rumored to start with Ian Kennedy plus maybe 1 or 2 other prospects. If we can get Harden and give up Ikky and any 2 non Ajax/Tabata/Montero prospects, I say we should do it, flaws be damned!

Boston's Lineup

Looking at the Boston lineup the last two days I can't help but feel their offense has really takken a big step down the last few years. The still have the big duo of Ortiz and Manny so they will always score runs but in order for their offense to be elite those guys HAVE to be great, not just good. Really look at the lineup from today;
Pedoria
Youkilis
Ortiz
Ramirez
Lowell
Moss
Varitek
Crisp
Lugo
Besides Manny and Ortiz that lineup is pretty weak. Even if you swap Ellsbury for Crisp and Drew for Moss its a lienup you can pitch to. Their pitching has to be very good or they might be on the outside looking in this playoff season. ....

Bullpen Thoughts

Some random thoughts on the Yankees bullpen;

• Kyle Farnsworth - Has anyone else noticed his decreased velocity? I noticed it last year particularly in the first half and the information at fangraphs backs it up. In 2006 his average fastball was 96.2 MPH, in 2007 94.7. Still plenty of giddy-up but not like it was. He has always relied on having an overpowering fastball, and the dip in velocity could help explain his alarming drop in k rate ( 2006 10.23, 2007 7.20). Watch his k rate and velocity early, it could be a sign he isn't the old Kyle.


• Scott Patterson - The guy has earned a spot. He has allowed 1 batter to reach in 6 innings this spring. If it really was an open competition he would be in.


• Edwar Ramirez - He has the second most strikeouts of any Yankee pitcher this spring (12) and has shown improved controlled by only walking 2. The bad news is his 4.91 era. While he probably will never be an eighth inning guy due to his average fastball, his changeup could be a devastating change of pace in the 6th or 7th inning.


• Latroy Hawkins - He appears to be a different pitcher. Much more of a ground ball pitcher so he might be a decent pickup after all.


• Jeff Karstens - Looks like he blew his chance. Too bad...I was rooting for him.

Lacking Integrity

Living in NY we have a number of choices for daily newspapers -

Newsday is very Long Island centric
The NY Times is the epitome of a liberal propaganda rag
The Village Voice is a decent paper (though they go beyond the Times on some issues), but doesn't really cover sports

Which leaves, outside of the very small independents, the NY Post and the Daily News. Both of these papers are called 'tabloids' due to the sensational nature of their content, headlines and reporting. No paper is worse, however, than the NY Daily News. It should therefore come as no surprise when today's headlines read: "A-Roid?"

The News is referring to allegations in Jose 'Money-Grubbing Scumbag' Canseco's new book that somehow tie A-Rod to steroids.

We all knew Canseco was going to try and bring A-Rod into the steroid finger-pointing party. Not only had we heard A-Rod whispers from Canseco before, but in order to sell as many books as possible he had to bring the biggest star in the game into the discussion.

We also all know that the allegations against A-Rod are completely fabricated. The first ghostwriter Canseco tried to hire refused the assignment because he felt the A-Rod stuff completely lacked credibility.

The caption under the Daily News headline reads:

"Alex Rodriguez finds himself under cloud of suspicion yesterday as Jose Canseco says in new book he's 'confident' Yankee slugger used steroids."

Confident?!? Canseco is slinging names and allegations like a short order cook slings hash and the best he can come up with is confident??

The Post is not as bad as the News, but their back page read - "Juicy Tale." The caption under the headline reads:

"Alex Rodriguez was unfazed yesterday by Jose Canseco's charges in his latest book, "Vindicated," in which Canseco alleges he "introduced Alex to a supplier of steroids" and that Rodriguez tried to sleep with Canseco's then wife, Jessica. "I really have absolutely no reaction," A-Rod said."

Are you kidding me? In my past I was introduced to Michael Skakel; does that mean I am a killer?

As to trying to sleep with Canseco's wife Jessica...Who cares? While A-Rod's sex life is among the things I am least interested in (ranking somewhere between Hillary Clinton's menstrual cycle and Michael Moore's view on anything), have you seen a picture of her? While I never condone extramarital activities, even Cynthia would probably give A-Rod a high five on that one!

The MGS (Money-Grubbing Scumbag) also writes in his book -

"So A-Rod, if you're reading this book, and if I'm not getting through to you, let's get clear on one thing: I hate your (bleeping) guts."

Shock! The broke, paranoid ex-player has a vendetta against the games biggest and highest paid star!

So let's see...
1. A writer refuses a paycheck due to a lack of allegation credibility
2. Canseco desperately needs the book to sell well because he squandered the $45million + he made over his playing career
3. A desperate Canseco tried to extort Maglio Ordonez in an effort to bring in money
4. The book simply alleges that Canseco 'introduced' A-Rod to a steroid dealer
5. Canseco alleges that A-Rod tried to sleep with his wife
6. Canseco 'hates A-Rod's guts'

Yet still, the Daily News prints sensational headlines as if A-Rod was caught with a needle in his backside.

I completely understand that these papers use their back page to attract attention to the paper and get people to buy them. What I will never understand is how the Daily News gets away with some of the back pages they print. They are many times nothing but sensational fabrications and completely lack any journalistic integrity.

Rethinking Joba in the 'Pen

No one debates that the Yanks are a better team in 2008 with Joba in the 'pen. Having the ability to shorten games to 6 or 7 inning affairs can be a huge benefit to a team (see 1996). The Yanks (and 99% of the blogosphere) are rightly adamant, though, that eventually, 200 innings of a special talent like The Beast as a starter are far better than 80 to 100 innings as a reliever. I am starting to believe, however, that Joba should spend all of 2008 as a reliever.

First off, Joba recently pitched for the 1st time this spring as a reliever. He needed all of 15 pitches to strike out the side showing his trademark 99 mph heater. Pitching as a starter, Joba was consistently 92-95 conserving bullets in an effort to maximize his innings. As a starter Joba's ERA this spring was 6.14. In his relief stint the other day, Joba was consistently hitting 99 mph and showed a far sharper slider than in his starts earlier in the spring. Of his relief appearance Joba said -

“It felt great. Just getting going, it’s like riding a bike. … I was more aggressive; just attack the zone. You let your competitive edge and your abilities take over. I think I did a better job of throwing my slider. It was back to the slider that I’m used to throwing and not trying to baby it.”

Just getting going? Seems like Joba is more comfortable in the 'pen. He's 22 and extremely emotional. Pitching out of the 'pen allows him to get all fired up when coming in to pitch and then use that emotion to dial up the heat on the fastball. As a starter he would need to temper that emotion and adrenaline in order to extend through 7 or 8 innings. As he ages I expect the adrenaline factor to decrease, but while he's young we should take advantage of it.

In keeping Joba in the 'pen for at least the 2008 season, the Yanks would be following a very successful example set by the Twins in 2002, 2003, 2004. After the 2002 season Twin fans were clamoring for them to put a certain 23 year old lefty in the rotation full time. Johan threw 108 innings in '02, pitching in 27 games with 14 starts; an average of 4 innings per appearance. In 2003 he again started the year in the bullpen and then moved to the rotation half way through the season.

Joba pitched 112 innings between the majors and minors in 2007 . Using the +30 rule, we can expect the Yanks to put a cap on him in the 140 inning range. The Yanks could easily get Joba to 140 innings as a reliever in 2008. All we would need to do is get Joba in around 60 games and average just under 2.5 innings per appearance.

I still believe that there is nothing more valuable than a true Ace, and I believe Joba will be one. I also think that giving a 22 year old who seems much more comfortable and confident in the bullpen a year or two to develop there is not a bad idea. The chances of Joba being the dominant, shut-down ace in the 2008 season are slim. The chances of him being a dominant, game shortening bridge to Mo are extremely high.Comfort breeds confidence, and confidence breeds success. As long as we make sure to get Joba the innings he needs to make the transition next year, I say let him dominate in the 'pen for 2008.

Time to Panick...Mo's DONE!

and Arod's gonna play for free...

27 batters faced, 11 strikeouts, ONE walk...that's just Mo being Mo!