PECOTA's on Crack

Let's ignore the fact that they have had to update their projections at least twice due to some kind of issue (Yanks 3rd? Yeah, better re-do!) - but a projected 836 runs scored for the '10 Yanks?

The Yanks scored 915 runs last year and allowed 753. While Vazquez should help the runs allowed number I doubt it gets as low as the 707 they project.

A drop of 79 runs scored, though, would be a big number. Yes, we lost Damon and Matsui, but Granderson's production will cancel out Damon, and a whole year of Arod + Nick Johnson should make up for the loss of Matsui.

(h/t RAB)

Rob Dibble is Dumb as Dirt

Being the baseball nut that I am, I listen to XM Radio's 'Home Plate' channel just about every time I'm in the car. Most of the on-air talent is pretty good; Jody MacDonald and Jim Duquette in particular. Among the on-air talent is former Red closer and 'Bad Boy' Rob Dibble.

While I never begrudge anyone their opinion (even when they are avid Yankee-haters...Russo!), I do have an issue with pure idiocy.

During the off-season discussion about Doc Halliday, there was much talk about him being traded to the Yanks. Dibble, in his infinite wisdom, stated that if the Yanks were to trade for Doc commissioner Selig should step in and reverse the trade using the 'best interests of baseball' powers afforded the commissioner.

Dibble went on to say that there was actually precedent for the commish to do this pointing to the reversal of Charley Finley's sale of players for cash in the 1970's. In 1976 A's owner Charlie Finley attempted to sell his 3 best players Vida Blue (to the Yanks), Rollie Fingers and Joe Rudi (to the Red Sox) for a total of $3.5mm. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn stepped in and disallowed the sale stating that it was not in the best interest of baseball. He did so as the A's were not attempting in any way to better their team; rather, A's owner Finley was simply trying to line his pockets by selling off players.

First, there is a HUGE difference between what Finley was doing and what the Yanks would have been doing had they traded for Halliday. My 6 year old can see the difference, and Dibble can't?

Second, if the commissioner starts stepping in and blocking trades what would be next...mandatory player transfers? 'The Yanks are too good, so let's move Arod to the Pirates and Tex to the Nationals'.

I tried to call the show and discuss the lunacy of what Dibble was saying with him on the air, but once they heard what I wanted to discuss the screener hung up while I was in mid-sentence.

How Bad for the Yankees is Arod's Contract?

After the 2007 season Alex Rodriguez signed a 10 year $275 million contract. For a player with a single team bidding entering his age 32 season this was quite the player friendly contract. Before Arod signed with the Yankees the lack of interest around baseball was significant enough that the MLB player association discussed filing a grievance. So while the Yankees might have overpaid how much have they overpaid? First lets get an idea of the production you can expect from Arod for the duration of the contract. Baseball Think Factory ran some rough projections before the 2008 season, I have replaced the 2008 and 2009 numbers with his actual production;

The RBI numbers will probably drop as Arod goes from a 3-4 hitter to a bit lower in the lineup as he ages. 2013-2017 seem to the big issue. Arod project to be a slightly above average player for most of the time(the average OPS in 2009 was .758) while most likely remaining the top paid player in baseball. You add in the potential 20 million a year Jeter will require for a 4 year extensions and the Yankees could be dishing out 50 million a year in 2013 and 2014 for below average players. They will have an additional 47 million invested in CC and Texieira. Texieria will only be 33 in 2014 and CC 32 so you can expect a fairly high level of production from those two. However the 2013/2014 Yankees will have 100 million in 4 players, possibly achieving only slightly above average production from those 4 spots.

Essentially what the Arod contract has forced the Yankees into is a budget minded approach where they will have to produce cheap players from within their own system. If they do not even the Yankees don't have the financially ability to spend their way into contention. As we get deeper into Arod's contract it will get worse and worse. I know this one is supposedly on Hank but Cashman has to get some blame here too.

But how bad is the contract? Ask me again when Arod is a 41 year old DH producing below average production while making 32 million a year....

The Joba Saga Just Won't Go Away

As the Yankees enter 2010 the team is pretty much set.
The infield spots are rock set in stone;
1b-Texiera
2b-Cano
SS-Jeter
3b-Arod
The OF is now also set, even though the roles and positions could change slightly with Granderson switching to LF and Gardner switching to CF. Also, Winn could potentially get some ABs as a LH if Gardner struggles;
RF-Swisher
CF-Granderson
LF-Gardner/Winn vs Lefties
DH and Catcher are also settled;
C-Posada
DH-Johnson
The rotation has 4 spots settled with AJ, CC, Vasquez and Andy. Throw in Mo closing and there is only two spots of significance left up for debate; 8th inning reliever and 5th starter. This is why the Joba saga just won't go away. If Joba starts and succeeds and 8th inning is a struggle you will here the talk that Joba needs to go to the pen. If the 5th starter struggles with Joba in the pen you have to question why the Yankees suffered through Joba rules only to give up on them so quickly.

With noting else to really debate on this team the radio waves and newspapers will be flush with recycled arguments in both directions. Is there anything that can save us from the same old story here? I don't think so, there is the possibility Joba can dominate as a starter and Phil will do the same in the 8th inning but even then you will hear the whispers. If either struggle the whispers become a roar. So Yankee fans prepare to roll your eyes through months of the Joba debate (again!), hopefully THIS is the last year and next year we can move on to bigger and better things. But as we approach 2010 come to the realization that the Joba debate is here to stay.

Were the Tigers Selling High on Granderson?

When the Tigers unloaded Granderson earlier this offseason it was widely believed they were unloading salary. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs said at the time;
" The Tigers aren't as good today as they were yesterday, but they did manage to shed some payroll...."
Makes sense the Tigers were shedding payroll and restocking with MLB ready talent. But then word comes of the Jose Valverde signing, 2 years and 14 million. Valverde will make the same salary in 2010 as Curtis Granderson. Also, there are rumors of Detroit being in on Damon. So what gives?

The only possible explanation is that Detroit was selling high on Granderson believing that his 2009 was closer to the player he is and his stellar 2007 was the aberration. With clubs still viewing him as the player the saw in 2007 Detroit unloaded him when they had the chance. His salary in 2010 is very reasonable but it climbs to 8.5 in 2011 and 10 million in 2011. If he had another year like 2009 the tigers would have gotten almost nothing back in return for him after the 2010 season.

Now obviously the Yankees feel that Granderson is closer to the 2007 version of himself or they wouldn't have made the trade. However, you have to wonder if the Tigers were watching him every day and felt he was possibly on decline were the Yankees possibly wrong here? Did they buy a player on decline? We will see how it plays out but maybe this deal isn't the slam duck we thought it was at the time.

1998 - A look Back

1998 was a banner year for baseball. Of course Yankees fans will remember the Yankees dominating the regular season on their way to the World Series. It was also an expansion year featuring new teams in Arizona and Tampa Bay. There were great individual performances as David Wells pitched a perfect game, Kerry Woods K's 20, Roger Clemens K's 18 and then, of course, there were the home runs.

We all remember Sosa and McGwire but 98 was also the first year in baseball history were 4 players hit more then 50 home runs as Greg Vaughn(!) and Ken Griffey jr. joined Sosa and Big Mac. So now that McGwire has admitted what we already knew how does 1998 hold up to hindsight? For starters the top players were clearly cheating as six of the top ten in the MVP voting were most likely on steroids in the NL(Sosa, Big Mac, Vaughn, Biggio, Galarraga,Bonds) and seven of the top ten in the AL(Juan Gonzalez, Nomar, Mo Vaughn, Manny, Albert Belle, Arod and Pudge).

For the Yankees, you also have to wonder how many players were doing steroids with Knoblauch and Pettitte already linked. As hard as it is to admit you have to wonder about some of the Yankees other top players. What about Bernie, Paulie, and even Tino? Any name linked to steroids (outside of Jeter but maybe that is even being naive) would not surprise me.

So now we have the top players and the top team linked to steroids.

So this is where the difficult part of the steroid era really comes into play. If the players and teams who succeeded during this period were clearly cheating what do we do with the records and the accomplishments of this time? Do we discount it all or do we simply take the stance that everyone cheated and call it even?

For the Yankees, I have come to the conclusion that the Yankees were the best team of the era with some of the best players. There is no way that most of the other top players were cheating but the Yankees core was not. However, the shear number of players who are being outed make it hard to discount or even taint the accomplishment of a team when they were clearly competing against other steroid using teams. Using that same logic you have to say the same for McGwire as well. He was facing opponents that were doing the same things he was. So basically the best then we still need to consider the best now. Sure those who were clean faced a competitive disadvantage and it isn’t fair to those players but I am not willing to complete throw those years out.

Knowing what we know now we either accept the timeframe for what it was or wipe it out completely. I am not willing to erase those year so Bonds, Big Mac, Sosa and 125 wins should stand forever in the record books and the Hall of Fame.

It is time to accept the period for what it was and move on.

We're Back!

The inactive period here at Yankee GM is over!

Come back soon for the new and improved Yankee GM blog!

Benched My a**

Benched? Every major news site and newspaper screamed with the headline the Alex had been 'benched' for 2 games when the truth is that after surgery he needs a rest. A question - if the Sox gave any one of their regulars a 2 day rest do you think for a moment anyone would call it a 'benching?'

Another example of the media unnecessarily taking every opportunity to give a negative slant to any info on A-Rod.

Top Ten Prospect?

Jesus Montero was a much publicized signing as a 16 year-old.  There was talk of his power being an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. A possible once in the generation type of talent that also happened to play catcher.  The Yankees opened up their checkbook and signed the teen to a large contract.  

Since then all Montero has done is hit.  He is currently 19 playing high A and hitting the cover off the ball(.967 OPS!).  This is pretty impressive considering his young age and his position.  The question now is Montero becoming one of the top prospects in baseball? His defense is the

 sticking point and the only real difference between him and say uber prospect Matt Weiters but even if he is a bad fielding first baseman his numbers might warrant a little more attention then what he is getting. I know, hard to believe in New York that a prospect is being under hyped but check out his numbers against the first baseman ranked higher then him on the BA top 100 list;

At a younger age he is having more success then those ranked higher on the list from Baseball America.  There is also talk of him being promoted in the near future which will allow us to do a little more of a direct comparison against those in AA.  

If the call-up comes and he continues to hit Jesus should start to warrant Joba circa 2007 like attention.  

Swing and a miss

While I'm sure everyone reading this blog also checks in with the grand daddy of Yankee bloggers, Pete Abraham, as A-Rod will make his return tonight I thought re-printing Pete's post from today would be wise - 

As I read A-Rod: The Many Lives of Alex Rodriguez by Selena Roberts, I thought back to an introduction to journalism course I took at UMass a long time ago.

The professor one day spoke about the difference between writing a story for a newspaper and a column. A story, he explained, contained only what you could prove. A column was what you thought.

The book is 246 pages of what Roberts thinks about Rodriguez. What she proves isn’t much of anything.

Because Roberts broke the story in February about Rodriguez having tested positive for steroids use, I wrongly assumed the book would include other revelations. Instead it’s page after page of “one teammate” suggesting Rodriguez did something wrong. Or “a player” insinuating that he did something else. “Friends” of Rodriguez paint him in unflattering terms.

In her postscript, Roberts acknowledges the use of 19 anonymous sources. But no explanation is given as to why these sources needed anonymity. It’s also unclear whether the 19 sources were used equally or whether one or two sources provided the bulk of the information. We’re supposed to trust her judgment, apparently.

Even those facts that could be documented are not. Roberts, for instance, reports that notorious Dominican trainer Angel Presinal was signed into major league clubhouses by security officers while attending to Rodriguez. But no dates or places are given.

Throughout the book, Roberts even places herself in Rodriguez’s conscience and writes as though she knows what he was thinking. In her version of his thoughts, Rodriguez is a weak-willed, narcissistic cheater and womanizer willing to do anything to succeed.

Given the completeness of the February story in Sports Illustrated, I expected more in the book, certainly more detail. But the book does not meet the standards of the magazine. It is, in essence, a 246-page column.

This is not to say that Rodriguez deserves the benefit of the doubt. He has admitted to using steroids from 2001-03 and it’s difficult to believe he limited himself to those three years. Roberts is able to prove he associated with suspicious characters and she is a skillful enough writer to lead you believe that Rodriguez probably did use PEDs at other points of his career. There are many layers of hearsay evidence.

But she doesn’t prove anything beyond that he’s not particularly well-liked by his teammates and says a lot of dumb things. That we knew. The rest is unfair to Rodriguez.

Roberts come close. But a good editor would have kicked the manuscript back and told her to come back when she more.

A-Rod might have a tough time saying the right thing; he might attract the wrong kind of spotlight too often. He is our player, though, and deserves and needs to get all the support we as fans can give him. We need him, and he needs us - let's not let him down.

It might be over

In the post game show tonight on YES, Joe Girardi admitted that Mariano Rivera's surgically repaired shoulder has been bothering him for a while now.

This could get ugly!

Manny Suspended 50 Games for PED Use

The LA Times has reported, and MLB has confirmed, that former Dread Sox and current Dodger hitting savant Manny Ramirez will be suspended for 50 games starting tonight for PED use. This brings to mind 2 things - 

1. It's amazing how once you leave the team owned by the author of the steroid report things start to 'come out.'

2. Hey big Papi and fag-a-tek...you're NEXT!

WILL YOU GIVE THIS TO MY DADDY

I don't usually participate in viral emails, but I thought this was worth it -  

Last week I was in Atlanta, Georgia attending a conference. While I was in the airport, returning home, I heard several people behind me beginning to clap and cheer. I immediately turned around and witnessed one of the greatest acts of patriotism I have ever seen.  Moving through the terminal was a group of soldiers in their camos. As they began heading to their gate, everyone (well almost everyone) was abruptly to their feet with their hands waving and cheering.

When I saw the soldiers, probably 30-40 of them, being applauded and cheered for, it hit me. I'm not alone. I'm not the only red-blooded American who still loves this country and supports our troops and their families.  Of course I immediately stopped and began clapping for these young unsung heroes who are putting their lives on the line everyday for us so we can go to school, work and home without fear or reprisal.


Just when I thought I could not be more proud of my country or of our service men and women, a young girl, not more than 6 or 7 years old, ran up to one of the male soldiers. He kneeled down and said 'hi.'
 
The little girl then asked him if he would give something to her daddy for her.


The young soldier, who didn't look any older than maybe 22 himself, said he would try and what did she want to give to her Daddy. Then suddenly the little girl grabbed the neck of this soldier, gave him the biggest hug she could muster and then kissed him on the cheek.

The mother of the little girl, who said her daughter's name was Courtney, told the young soldier that her husband was a Marine and had been in Iraq for 11 months now. As the mom was explaining how much her daughter Courtney missed her father, the young soldier began to tear up.

When this temporarily single mom was done explaining her situation, all of the soldiers huddled together for a brief second. Then one of the other servicemen pulled out a military-looking walkie-talkie. They started playing with the device and talking back and forth on it.
 
After about 10-15 seconds of this, the young soldier walked back over to Courtney, bent down and said this to her, 'I spoke to your daddy and he told me to give this to you.' He then hugged this little girl that he had just met and gave her a kiss on the cheek. He finished by saying 'your daddy told me to tell you that he loves you more than anything and he is coming home very soon.'

The mom at this point was crying almost uncontrollably and as the young soldier stood to his feet, he saluted Courtney and her mom. I was standing no more than 6 feet away from this entire event.

As the soldiers began to leave, heading towards their gate, people resumed their applause. As I stood there applauding and looked around, there were very few dry eyes, including my own. That young soldier in one last act of selflessness, turned around and blew a kiss to Courtney with a tear rolling down his cheek.

We need to remember everyday all of our soldiers and their families and thank God for them and their sacrifices. At the end of the day, it's good to be an American.

RED FRIDAYS ----- Very soon, you will see a great many people wearing Red every Friday. The reason? Americans who support our troops used to be called the 'silent majority'. We are no longer silent, and are voicing our love for God, country and home in record breaking numbers.

We are not organized, boisterous or over-bearing. We get no liberal media coverage on TV, to reflect our message or our opinions. Many Americans, like you, me and all our friends, simply want to recognize that the vast majority of America supports our troops.

Our idea of showing solidarity and support for our troops with dignity and respect starts this Friday -   and continues each and every Friday until the troops all come home, sending a deafening message that.. Every red-blooded American who supports our men and women afar will wear something red.

By word of mouth, press, TV -- let's make the United States on every Friday a sea of red much like a homecoming football game in the bleachers.

If every one of us who loves this country will share this with acquaintances, co-workers, friends, and family. It will not be long before the USA is covered in RED and it will let our troops know the once 'silent' majority is on their side more than ever; certainly more than the media lets on.

The first thing a soldier says when asked 'What can we do to make things better for you?' is   ...   We need your support and your prayers.

Let's get the word out and lead with class and dignity, by example; and wear something red every Friday.

IF YOU AGREE -- THEN SEND THIS ON.  IF YOU COULDN'T CARE LESS THEN HIT THE DELETE BUTTON --- IT IS YOUR CHOICE. I don't know if you've seen this, but I couldn't delete it.

WE LIVE IN THE LAND OF THE FREE, ONLY BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE.  
THEIR BLOOD RUNS RED   ---- SO WEAR RED! ---

 

=

Joba Hurt?

I know the results were good tonight and the radar gun even lit up 95 a couple of times but this is still not the Joba we saw last year. Here are the pitch fx numbers;

Avg fastball Speed - 92.76
Max Speed - 96.3

Not bad numbers but compare that to last years starts;

Best Avg FB Speed - 95.51
Worst ang FB speed - 94.57
Total Avg FB as starter - 95.00

Best Max Speed - 99.6
Worst Max Speed - 97.8
Average Max Speed - 98.86

So where is the other 2 mph? Those 2 are what take him from a very good pitcher to a once in a generation talent. His average FB as a starter last year would put him second in the majors behind only Justin Verlander while his 2009 average only puts him in the top 20. So the question that needs answering is why the drop in velocity? Is he hurt? Is it poor mechanics? Whats the deal with Joba?

Messiah Sighing

Sorry to my more religious friends, but the boy-wonder known to some as "Phil Phranchise" was dubbed "The Messiah" on this website (or simply TM) about 3 years ago and it's just tough to let it go.

Anyway, TM is making his season debut against el Tigros (is that right? I don't speak any Spanish) tonight in the land of unsold inferior cars. I for one, am really looking forward to it. In my opinion, Phil is still every bit the pending stud everyone dubbed him before last season's debaclous showing.

Why, you ask, am I still so high on Phil? How about these numbers so far in 2009 in SWB-

3 wins, vs zero losses
1.86 ERA
17 hits and 3(!!) walks allowed in 19 ip

And just as important as the above...he has yet to turn 23 years old!

I have no doubt that this kid is both the real deal and headed for stardom.

I hope it starts tonight!

Phil Hughes Update

Yankee phenom-in-waiting Phil Hughes pitched Wednesday at Triple-A, improving to 3-0 with 7 2/3 innings of one-run, six-hit ball in a 6-1 victory over Buffalo, walking one and striking out seven in the 105-pitch start.

With Wang looking like Hideki Irabu-redux, might be time for Phil to step in!

Papi on Joba

Via the Post - If young Joba Chamberlain misbehaves tomorrow night, he might face a spanking from someone else's Papi. With Chamberlain scheduled to start for the Yankees in the opener of a three-game series against the Red Sox, David Ortiz yesterday said the talented right-hander should avoid using Kevin Youkilis' head as a bull's-eye. "None of that, man — just play the game the way it's supposed to be, and that's about it," Ortiz said, referring to Chamberlain. "This is a guy, as good as he is, the next step for him will be to earn respect from everybody in the league. He's not a bad guy, but when things like that happen, people get the wrong idea." Considering he has fired four pitches either near Youkilis' head or behind Youkilis in the last 20 months, Chamberlain quickly has emerged as a villain to Red Sox Nation in this rivalry. There were the consecutive pitches to Youkilis — one of which sailed behind him — in August of 2007 that got Chamberlain suspended. Another close call occurred last July at Yankee Stadium, when Chamberlain threw high-and tight to Youkilis, nearly starting a bench clearing brawl. Chamberlain uncorked another fastball three weeks later at Fenway that sent Youkilis to the dirt. Angry glares were exchanged. Why always Youkilis? "I don't have an explanation," Ortiz said. Talking to reporters at his locker for about 20 minutes between games of yesterday's split doubleheader against the Twins — the Yankees' game against the Athletics was on TV in the clubhouse — Ortiz said this weekend will not feel like the normal Yankees-Red Sox circus. "This one is an easy one — they are missing A-Rod," Ortiz said.


Hey Papi, how about hitting a home run before telling other people what to do...just ONE!

You know what Joba...bean em both!

With Nady Out For Season - A Guest Post

Since the Yankees have officially lost Xavier Nady for the season probably due to Tommy John surgery( which is extremely unfortunate!) should the Yanks be looking for another right handed outfielder? I had written a post earlier in the year that the Yankees should have possibly traded for a young and upcoming center fielder such as Rasmus or Maybin, both of which would have cost an arm and a leg plus some more body parts! It now appears though that we need another player that can man the outfield and offer a right handed stick in my humble opinion. If not for all of his legal troubles and dark cloud over him I would suggest Elijah Dukes as a potential prospect considering his tremendous talent and youth, but all things considered I don't feel that is a good idea, especially placing him in a city such as New York where his troubles could multiply exponentially!!! I would still like to make a play for Rasmus with the Cardinals searching for pitching and having a surplus of outfielders, but that isn't going to happen either in my opinion unfortunately. Yet there is an option that most likely isn't that popular, and I am referring to Andruw Jones who is currently sitting in Texas where they have a surplus of young and talented outfielders. I don't think it would take much to attain him and I certainly don't see how it could hurt us to give him a chance. Perhaps I am wrong though, and I look forward to hearing your response.

How bad has Chien been?

By the numbers

1 - Games before this year where he has pitched less then 4 IP

3 - Games this year where he has pitched less then 4 IP(out of 3 starts)

7 - Career worst game score(happened 2 times, both this year)

8 - Career worst ERs given up in a game for Wang(happened 2 times, all this year)

0- Times a NYY pitcher not named Wang has given up 7 or more runs in 3 consecutive starts

Historically bad

No Pressure at all on AJ today

Not only are we expecting AJ Burnett to pick up Chien-Ming Wang again, but we are praying that he saves us from the ultimate humiliation...losing to Carl Pavano!

Nah - no pressure on AJ today!