While the Yankees Youth Movement Stalls the Enemy's Shines

The Yankees youth movement has hit a bit of a bump in the road. Phil Hughes is hurt again and Ian Kennedy has been sent down to regain his confidence. Both have been not just mediocre but horrible. For comparison sake, Jeff Weaver had one of the worst seasons by a starting pitcher I have ever witnessed in 2003 with a 5.99 era and 1.62 Whip - both are significantly better then Hughes (9.00 Era, 2.14Whip) and Kennedy (8.37 Era and 2.03 Whip). Phil's and Ian's Eras are good for 149th and 152nd best in baseball with pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched (154 total pitchers). Those two have also failed to go 5 innings in 8 out of their 12 appearances. Ugly.

If you take look at the other two youngsters Lester and Buchholz) in the center of the AL pennant race, the results have been much much better. Both have sub 4 eras (3.94 for Lester and 3.71 for Bucholtz). Also, Lester has gone 5+ in 6 out of 8 starts and Buchholz in 5 out of 6 starts. Lester's whip is an OK 1.43, but Buchholtz' is a little better at 1.33 and he is averaging almost a k per inning. Throw in one superb spot start by Justin Masterson (6ip 2hits 1run), Ellsbury's .415 OBP and 11 steals in 11 attempts, Brandon Moss' 2 late homers, and Jed Lowrie filling in nicely, and Boston could not have asked for more out of their kids. Manny Delcarmen has been horrible - 7.30 era but that is a small speed bump overall for the Red Sox.

The question is what is the difference? Is it the pressure that Ian and Phil were under? Are the Boston prospects just better?

I have long thought the failure of most of the Yankees pitching imports was due to the intense pressure they were under. Weaver, Contreras, Vasquez all proved to be better elsewhere then when they pitched here. I assumed, and maybe so did the Yankees, that the kids brought through the system would be immune to the pressure. The success of Cano and Wang helped create that perception, but really - when was the last time a top prospect succeeded with the Yankees? How about a pitching prospect that became even a serviceable major leaguer? Maybe the attention and pressure is just too great for a position like starting pitcher where so much is dependent on confidence and approach. The bullpen, where a pitcher can simply throw, might be another story - but the rotation seems too much to ask. In recent memory the only starters produced by the Yankees came in with little fan fare; Lilly, and Wang. Darell Rasner kind of fits this mold; very little expectations and no fan fare.

I know its early and by July things could completely change, but the impact of the pressure on top prospects in NY bears watching. Time will tell if is going to have the same affect it did on the Yankees high priced imports.

Joba vs. Clay

Espn is doing a series of articles and chats that compares two different players. One such chat covers Joba Chamberlain versus Clay Buchholtz. Some intestesting stuff from the chat;

We talked to nine non-Red Sox or Yankees personnel people, and the verdict was decidedly pro-Joba. While most baseball talent evaluators predict stardom for both pitchers, seven of the nine preferred Chamberlain.

Chamberlain's fastball and slider both grade out near 80 on the 20-80 scouts scale

Joba's curve ranges from above average to hellacious depending on the day. His changeup is a work in progress.

Buchholz had an off field issue at McNeese State where he was arrested for stealing some computers.

I went into this with an open mind, and people whose opinions I respect -- scouting directors, talent evaluators who saw both guys in the Eastern League, etc. -- gave the nod to Chamberlain by a substantial margin. That doesn't mean Buchholz won't be terrific, or even that Joba will be better than Buchholz. But I was surprised at the pro-Joba level of sentiment out there.

So basically Joba Rules and Clay is a convict.

Also, another item of note;

A couple of scouts told me they actually prefer Jeff Marquez -- the other prospect whose name was mentioned in the Yankees' Johan Santana package -- to Kennedy.

The more people bash Ian the more I start believing in him. I watched a Yankees Magazine piece on him and his wife and you get the idea that he is grounded and intelligent. I think people are making the typical mistake of valuing velocity too much and not putting enough weight into pitching ability and control.