What does the Arizona Fall League Statistics Tell us?

Phil Hughes has struggle and panic has set in. So what does it mean?

Absolutely nothing;

Gavin Floyd 2006 (age 23)- 5.59 era 1.40 whip

Dustin McGowan 2006(Age24) - 5.59 era 1.40 whip

TJ Beam 2006(age 25 ) - .60 era 1.13 whip

Kyle Kendrick 2006 (age 21) - 6.75 era 2.06 whip

Jared Weaver 2005 (Age 22) - 5.47 era 1.42 whip

There are others as well as a whole slew of top performers who became non-prospects shortly after. The point is the Arizona fall league is about players working on things like a third pitch or to extend their innings in preparation for next year.

So when the panic sets in on Phil Hughes performance in AZ simply ignore them. We all know Phil can dominate minor leaguers as is obvious by his sub 1 career whip. What we found out about Phil is he needs another pitch to do it in the majors. His performance is nothing to even pay attention to. He is feeling out a new pitch and hopefully it clicks.

While the Yankees Youth Movement Stalls the Enemy's Shines

The Yankees youth movement has hit a bit of a bump in the road. Phil Hughes is hurt again and Ian Kennedy has been sent down to regain his confidence. Both have been not just mediocre but horrible. For comparison sake, Jeff Weaver had one of the worst seasons by a starting pitcher I have ever witnessed in 2003 with a 5.99 era and 1.62 Whip - both are significantly better then Hughes (9.00 Era, 2.14Whip) and Kennedy (8.37 Era and 2.03 Whip). Phil's and Ian's Eras are good for 149th and 152nd best in baseball with pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched (154 total pitchers). Those two have also failed to go 5 innings in 8 out of their 12 appearances. Ugly.

If you take look at the other two youngsters Lester and Buchholz) in the center of the AL pennant race, the results have been much much better. Both have sub 4 eras (3.94 for Lester and 3.71 for Bucholtz). Also, Lester has gone 5+ in 6 out of 8 starts and Buchholz in 5 out of 6 starts. Lester's whip is an OK 1.43, but Buchholtz' is a little better at 1.33 and he is averaging almost a k per inning. Throw in one superb spot start by Justin Masterson (6ip 2hits 1run), Ellsbury's .415 OBP and 11 steals in 11 attempts, Brandon Moss' 2 late homers, and Jed Lowrie filling in nicely, and Boston could not have asked for more out of their kids. Manny Delcarmen has been horrible - 7.30 era but that is a small speed bump overall for the Red Sox.

The question is what is the difference? Is it the pressure that Ian and Phil were under? Are the Boston prospects just better?

I have long thought the failure of most of the Yankees pitching imports was due to the intense pressure they were under. Weaver, Contreras, Vasquez all proved to be better elsewhere then when they pitched here. I assumed, and maybe so did the Yankees, that the kids brought through the system would be immune to the pressure. The success of Cano and Wang helped create that perception, but really - when was the last time a top prospect succeeded with the Yankees? How about a pitching prospect that became even a serviceable major leaguer? Maybe the attention and pressure is just too great for a position like starting pitcher where so much is dependent on confidence and approach. The bullpen, where a pitcher can simply throw, might be another story - but the rotation seems too much to ask. In recent memory the only starters produced by the Yankees came in with little fan fare; Lilly, and Wang. Darell Rasner kind of fits this mold; very little expectations and no fan fare.

I know its early and by July things could completely change, but the impact of the pressure on top prospects in NY bears watching. Time will tell if is going to have the same affect it did on the Yankees high priced imports.

The not so fake injury

So now comes news that Hughes has a stress fracture of his ninth rib and won't even resume throwing for 4 weeks. This is about as bad as news can get. Not only do we have to wonder about Phil's ability to pitch but also his ability to stay healthy as well. The injury started to hurt him about a week ago so unfortunately I don't think you can credit all of the bad pitching to his injury. So what now? Will Phil be brittle? Can he evolve? Well this year, like last, doesn't look like is going to decide that. The Hughes story won't be even be close to clear for years now.

Straight from the Hughes' mouth

On his blog;
After coming back from my injury last season my mechanics were a little out of whack. This led to a little loss of velocity and command. When Dave arrived in September we were able to work out some things and I think that had a lot to do with the success I had at the end of the season. It was nice to finish off the year on a good note so I have something to work toward to get back to my normal self in 2008.

Man I sure hope so, The Messiah lives. Also, he mentions Dave Eiland in glowing terms;

This will be my 3rd season working with Dave. When it comes to my mechanics and pitching mentality I don’t think there is anyone that knows me better. Everyone is very excited to have him this season.

Definitely a vote of confidence for Eiland. He was able to fix in a week what Gator couldn't in a month? Also, check out the names of the questioners;

deltaforce82
chocolateaddict706
metalboy15

Dont know who scares me more deltaforce or metalboy.

Phil Hughes

The majority of the debate around the Santana trade centers on whether or not to give up Phil Hughes in a deal. Phil came up with such hype and universal love that we began calling him "The Messiah." Scouts loved his stuff, makeup and build. Statheads loved his low WHIPs, high K rates, high groudball rates and track record. However, last year while he clearly was acceptable he did not look the part of future ace. Some of that changed late in the year but still my eyes made me question what he really is.

Since "my eyes" are not an acceptable reason to question him I decided to see what the numbers tell us. His k rates(per 9) did drop from 9(A+) and 10.7(AA) in 2006 to 8.79(AAA) and 7.18(MLB). Now his K rates drop might be a result of his injury and an MLB adjustement period. Also, you would expect his k rates to drop as the competition gets tougher. If we look at recent ace pitchers lets look at the first year in MLB and see how their k rates compares to both their minor league numbers and their career MLB numbers;

Clemens -
Minors-10.40
MLB Year 1-8.51
MLB Career-8.55
Smoltz
Minors-6.51
MLB Year 1-5.2
MLB Career-7.95
Maddux
Minors-5.66
MLB Year 1-5.81
MLB Career-6.12
Pedro
Minors-9.38
MLB Year 1-10.01
MLB Career-10.20

Interesting that the only pitcher to decrease his Minor league K rate was Clemens. So the drop in K rate is a minor concern but not without precedent.

The other stat if note last year was Hughes GB%. In 2006 he rate a GB% of 52%(A+) and 55%(AA) last year he had 64%(AAA) and 37%(MLB). Maybe it was due to the injuries but there was also speculation that it was due to a higher release point. Either way, he wasn't get the ground balls that he had previously once he reached the majors. Also, here are the scouting reports before he came up on his velocity;

Sickels May 2006;
Hughes is a right handed hitter and thrower, born June 24, 1986, listed at 6-5, 220 pounds. His fastball can hit 96 MPH and is consistent at 91-93, though his velocity has reportedly increased a bit this year.

BA November 2006;
Hughes sits at 91-95 mph with his four-seam fastball and touches 96.

Last year there was a lot of discussion on his dip in velocity and once again it might have been due to the injury. However, the dip in K rate, dip in GB% and loss of velocity make Hughes' status as an potential ace borderline unless those things correct themselves in the early part of 2008.

Now I agree that the Yankees should try and keep the big three but the odds say at least one of these kids will fail, will it be Phil Hughes? I am a huge fan and I sure hope not but his K rate, GB% and velocity might at least tell us if greatness is in his future early in 2008.

Phil on Phil

In case you haven't seen it yet, The Messiah(Phil Hughes) has his own blog. Check it out here.

The Santana Watch Day 84

So the Mets also seem to think the Twins asking price is too high for Johan;

"The two teams continue to talk and word out of Minnesota yesterday was that, yes, the Mets could snare Cy Young Santana for the right price, but as far as the Mets are concerned, that five-for-one deal is not the right price. "

I have stated this again and again - Johan will end up in the Bronx and Phil Hughes + will be on their way to Minnesota. Its just a matter of time. So we wait and wait and wait.....

Santana Trade - Comparing the offers

I found a great article by Aaron Gleeman comparing the two packages(Red Sox & Yankees) on the table for Santana.;

Those packages are relatively similar in terms of overall value, so unless other teams get heavily involved the Twins' choice may ultimately come down to picking between Hughes, Ellsbury, or Lester as the deal's centerpiece.

He continues
Toss in immediate success as a big leaguer and that's about as good as it gets for a pitcher who won't turn 22 years old until a couple weeks before the 2008 All-Star game. As I wrote two months ago when discussing Hughes' inclusion in various early Santana rumors, short of cloning Francisco Liriano or convincing the Mariners to part with Felix Hernandez, Hughes represents the best chance the Twins have of replacing Santana with an early-20s pitcher capable of being a true No. 1 starter.....

On to Ellsbury
Ellsbury fills an immediate need for the Twins and looks like a relatively sure thing to become at least a good player, but his ceiling is seemingly along the lines of Lofton or Johnny Damon. Hughes' ceiling is that of a true ace who could literally replace Santana at the top of the rotation in time, but he'd add to what's already an area of strength for the Twins and there's more risk that he'll flop completely whether because of injuries or performance.
So it basically comes down to higher risk higher reward for Hughes or low risk low reward for Ellsbury. Gleeman wraps it up by saying;
..they'd be smart to go after the one player who clearly gives them the best chance to come away from the Santana deal with a superstar. In other words, Phil Hughes.
Exactly my sentiments, the twins need to get an impact player for Santana and Ellsbury projects at best to be a complimentary player, not a superstar. I still believe that Johan will be a Yankee I just hope it happens soon so we can move on with our lives.

What the...???

Ok, I am officially ticked off. Why is it that the Yanks have to offer not just a little bit more, but A LOT more in trades than do the Red Sox in order to get the same players? The Johan thing is a perfect example...we offer Hughes, and they want Jackson and Kennedy too. They are supposedly 'close' with a package centered around Jon Lester and Ned Lowrie. Well, seeing as how Phil Hughes has been the #1 pitching prospect in baseball for the past 24 months, Lester must be da man, huh? Let's take a look at their minor league numbers side by side -

Lester has 6 seasons minor league experience to Hughes' 4.

Age -
Lester - 1/7/84 - 24 on opening day
Hughes - 6/24/86 - 22 on opening day

W/L
Lester - 32-31 in 102 games started
Hughes - 25-8 in 53 games started

ERA
Lester - 3.33
Hughes - 2.03

K's/9
Lester - 8.31
Hughes - 10.18

BB/9
Lester - 3.78
Hughes - 2.16

HR/9
Lester - 0.56
Hughes - 0.20

Hits/9
Lester - 7.99
Hughes - 5.56

The numbers go on and on and on! Hughes is a potential ACE; Lester is a potential #3 (AT BEST!). It's not even close!

Some might then say, "Lowerie is going to be a great player, and that makes the Sox' offer as good if not better." Lowrie is a career .291 hitter with ZERO power (20 HR in 3 years). The Yanks were prepared to give up Melky Cabrera who in 3 MAJOR LEAGUE seasons has a .275 average and 15 HR. The argument that Lowrie has more upside is crap too; they are both 23 - Lowrie was born April 17, 1984, and Melky is a whopping 116 days older (Aug. 11, 1984). Melky has stats in the majors that are almost identical to Lowrie's in the minors! Assuming Lowrie hits AAA pitchers better than major leaguers (gee, ya think?), this tilts hugely in favor of the Yanks' offer as well.

So what the hell? Why is it that the Yanks have to offer SOOOOO much more than the Sox to get the same player back?

An argument could (and should!) be made that the most comparable offer the Yanks could make to the Sox' offer of Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson (23, 3.74 era in 2 minor league seasons)would be:

*Alan Horne (AA pitcher of the year, at least an equal to Lester, probably better)
*Melky (better, younger, with more upside and cheaper than Crisp)
*Alberto Gonzalez (24 yr old SS who hit .304 @ SWB last yr - a plus glove with upside, comparable to Lowrie)
*Russ Ohelndorf (a more major league ready pitcher than Materson).

When you compare offers this way it is obvious why the Yanks pulled out...why should we get so totally fleeced when the next best offer is far less than ours?

Hank - hold tight! Johan is good, but if the Twinkies really liked the Sox' offer more Santana would be in Boston already!

Johan Trade Talks Continue

From the Star Tribune;
"While no deal appeared imminent, there were indications that in their talks with the Red Sox, the Twins were focused on a package headlined by center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

Meanwhile, the Twins' talks with the Yankees remained dormant. According to a person close to the talks, Yankees lefthander Kei Igawa was one of several players the sides discussed last week, along with righthander Phil Hughes and center fielder Melky Cabrera. "

The first thing this tells me is the Yankees and Twins are clearly still talking. Nobody brought Kei Igawa's name up last week so this is clearly a new development in the talks. Also, the Red Sox thing still looks like propaganda to me. The Twins are throwing out there the one piece that the Red Sox have that trumps the Yankee offer, Ellsbury, in a ploy to make them increase their offer. If the talks were "centered" on Lester then the Yankees could be confident their offer was better since Hughes is clearly the better prospect. In the end, I have a feeling Hughes, Melky and Kennedy will be gone and Johan will a Yankee. I hope I am wrong.

It was the Money?

According to Bill Madden;
"Believe it or not, the final decision not to go through with a deal that was on the table - one that would have sacrificed Hughes, Melky Cabrera, 23-year-old Double-A righthander Jeff Marquez and 22-year-old A-ball third baseman Mitch Hilligoss - was based on money. "
A couple of things here, if that was the final package I am shocked the Yankees pulled out. Also, have the Yankees EVER not done something because of money? The only time I can remember it is with Carlos Beltran.

This is a great sign because it says that Cash is indeed still in charge and not the bumbling mouthpiece Hank Steinbrenner. Also, three pitchers under the age of 23 anchoring our staff can have devastating effect on the rest of baseball. The Yankees can concievable sign Mark Texiera(say 21mil/yr), CC Sabathia (20mil/yr), and Adam Dunn(15mil/yr) and still not be at the 200 million dollar threshold next year. This has to scare the rest of baseball to death.

Ellsbury or Hughes?

Boston has decided to include Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade for Santana. This is a no brainer from Boston's standpoint and it does make it clear that they are serious about acquiring Santana. Now I have made it clear that I am not as in love with Ellsbury as all of Red Sox Nation but is this really a question(asked in the same article);
"What the choice for Minnesota may come down to, in the end, is this: Do they prefer Phil Hughes as the centerpiece player in a deal, or Ellsbury"
Let me see, a potential ace or a speedy CF with no power?

Johan Gets closer?

From Peter Ab;

"The AP is now reporting that Phil Hughes is part of the offer for Johan Santana along with Melky Cabrera and a “mid-level prospect.”
In a new twist, the wire service says the offer could have an expiration date of a few days as the Yankees are prepared to go after Danny Haren."

I think Phil Hughes could be better then Haren as early as next year. Take a look at their numbers from last year and the gap is a lot smaller then you think;
Haren -Whip - 1.21, H/9- 8.65, K/9 - 7.76
Hughes- Whip - 1.28, H/9- 7.93, K/9 - 7.18
Let just hope any package for Haren has Hughes off-limits.

The more this plays out the more it seems inevitable that Hughes is gone and Johan is here. The Haren talk is most likely a ploy to force a Minnesota decision, along with the deadline ala Johnny Damon. The Yankees will be better because of it and it is a move you have to make - a proven ace for a potential ace. But why do I not feel excited? Is it due to Brown, Vasquez, Contreras, Johnson and Weaver flashbacks? I think maybe I have just come to expect every starter we acquire will let us down. That is why it was so exciting to have the homegrown three....

Gardner vs Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury suddenly is Willie Mays. According to John Heyman;

"If the Red Sox relent and include young outfield phenom Jacoby Ellsbury in trade talks for Johan Santana, Boston would probably lead the high-stakes sweepstakes for the two-time Cy Young Award winner."

Ellsbury had a nice run at the end of the year but what seperates him from Brett Gardner? If you take a look at their career numbers the difference could be explained by Ellsbury slightly better performance this year. But looking at the two players they have similar skills sets; no power, tons of speed, good average and plate discipline. You would think that if the Twins are interested in Lester and Ellsbury the Yankes can get Santana with Gardner and a better pitching prospect then Lester(Hughes or Kennedy). Or is Ellsbury really Willie Mays?