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Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Phil Hughes - Counterpoint
Phil turned 21 a month into the 2007 season. Prior to '07, his numbers in the minors were unbelievable. In 4 minor league season Phil posted:
13-2, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 311K, 171H, 275IP
Those numbers translate into a 10.18 k/9, 5.59 H/9 - unreal, and unsustainable numbers.
There is a big difference between even AAA and the majors, however.
In his first major league experience, Phil posted:
5-3, 4.46, 1.28 WHIP, 58K, 64H, 72IP.
Pretty pedestrian numbers on first blush. When you take a closer look, however, for the whole season Phil allowed an impressive 8 h/9.
We all know that Phil was in the midst of a sure no-no vs. Texas when he blew out his hammy in May. When he came back he was understandably tentative and struggled in August to the tune of 1-2, 6.40 ERA. Also due to the extended layoff we saw a drop in velocity from 93-95 to 89-92. This drop in velocity can be wholly attributed to him being a little tentative and the resulting lack of arm strength from the layoff.
In September we started to see the Phil we were expecting - 3-0, 2.73 ERA, 25 H, 29 IP, 1.19 WHIP. His K numbers were still down, but again, his lack of arm strength resulted in a lower velocity and thus a lower K rate.
A pitcher's GB/FB ratio is an excellent measure of a pitcher's ability to miss bats. If a pitcher is missing 3-5 mph on his fastball doesn't it make sense that his ability to miss bats might decline a little bit as well?
When you compare Phil's first year with other dominant, HOF starters his numbers compare well:
Clemens (age 21) - 9-4, 4.32 ERA (97 ERA+), 146 H, 126 K, 133 IP
Smoltz (age 21) - 2-7, 5.48 ERA (67 ERA+), 74 H, 37 K, 64 IP
Jim Palmer (age 19) - 5-4, 3.72 ERA (94 ERA+), 75 H, 75 K, 92 IP
Bob Gibson (age 24) - 3-6, 5.61 ERA (73 ERA+), 97 H, 69 K, 86 IP
Sandy Koufax (age 20) - 2-4, 4.91 ERA (82 ERA+), 66H, 30 K, 58 IP
Phil Hughes (age 21) - 5-3, 4.46 ERA (100 ERA+), 64H, 58K, 72 IP
All things considered, I am extremely happy with the performance The Messiah turned in last year. I fully expect that we will see something in the area of a 4.25 era for the first month or so in '08, with similar velocity to what we saw last year. I expect that come mid to late June we will see the velocity pick up, and his stuff and numbers become more and more dominant.
It is extremely unusual for a pitcher to come up to the majors and perform like Doc Gooden; even if he is a future Hall of Famer. Give Phil some time to develop and learn the league and I believe we will get what has been advertised - a top of the rotation ace for a long time to come.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Phil Hughes
Since "my eyes" are not an acceptable reason to question him I decided to see what the numbers tell us. His k rates(per 9) did drop from 9(A+) and 10.7(AA) in 2006 to 8.79(AAA) and 7.18(MLB). Now his K rates drop might be a result of his injury and an MLB adjustement period. Also, you would expect his k rates to drop as the competition gets tougher. If we look at recent ace pitchers lets look at the first year in MLB and see how their k rates compares to both their minor league numbers and their career MLB numbers;
Clemens -
Minors-10.40
MLB Year 1-8.51
MLB Career-8.55
Smoltz
Minors-6.51
MLB Year 1-5.2
MLB Career-7.95
Maddux
Minors-5.66
MLB Year 1-5.81
MLB Career-6.12
Pedro
Minors-9.38
MLB Year 1-10.01
MLB Career-10.20
Interesting that the only pitcher to decrease his Minor league K rate was Clemens. So the drop in K rate is a minor concern but not without precedent.
The other stat if note last year was Hughes GB%. In 2006 he rate a GB% of 52%(A+) and 55%(AA) last year he had 64%(AAA) and 37%(MLB). Maybe it was due to the injuries but there was also speculation that it was due to a higher release point. Either way, he wasn't get the ground balls that he had previously once he reached the majors. Also, here are the scouting reports before he came up on his velocity;
Sickels May 2006;
Hughes is a right handed hitter and thrower, born June 24, 1986, listed at 6-5, 220 pounds. His fastball can hit 96 MPH and is consistent at 91-93, though his velocity has reportedly increased a bit this year.
BA November 2006;
Hughes sits at 91-95 mph with his four-seam fastball and touches 96.
Last year there was a lot of discussion on his dip in velocity and once again it might have been due to the injury. However, the dip in K rate, dip in GB% and loss of velocity make Hughes' status as an potential ace borderline unless those things correct themselves in the early part of 2008.
Now I agree that the Yankees should try and keep the big three but the odds say at least one of these kids will fail, will it be Phil Hughes? I am a huge fan and I sure hope not but his K rate, GB% and velocity might at least tell us if greatness is in his future early in 2008.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
The Bullpen - A look Back
2007, Farnsworth, Vizcaino, Proctor, Bruney
2006, Farnsworth, Proctor, Villone, Myers
2005, Gordon, Proctor, Strutze, F Rodriguez
2004, Gordon, Quantrill, Strutze, Heredia
2003, Hammond, Osuna, Hitchcock, Acevedo
2002, Karsay, Mendoza, Stanton, Hitchcock
2001, Mendoza, Stanton, Choate, Witasick
Now if I were to rank these groups just by looking at the names I would say 03 group is the worst and shockingly last year's group might be the best. Here is how the finished in terms of bullpen ERA(AL only);
2007 10
2006 8
2005 10
2004 9
2003 6
2002 3
2001 3
Now looking at the cast of sad sad characters that made up these pens there really isn't a noticeably difference in their ability. Can you really say the 03 cast (Hammond, Osuna, Hitchcock, Acevedo) is better then the 05 cast (Gordon, Proctor, Strutze, F Rodriguez)? No way. The real difference here is the amount these pens were used. The 2003 Yankees were first in the AL in starters innings pitched and the 05 team was ninth out of 14 teams in innings produced by their starters.
This does not bode well for the 08 Yankee bullpen given the inning limitation of the big three. Expect a big of a revolving door and some long summer nights.
Who's on First? The Next Arod!
There is a player deemed every bit as good as Arod available. There is a player judged the equivilant to Alfonso Soriano who is right now a free agent - Brad Wilkerson!
What? You don't think Wilkerson measures up to the Arod/Sono equal description? Well apparently Jon Daniels does.
Prior to the 2004 season, Daniels traded Alex Rodriguez to the Yanks (with cash!) for Soriano. Daniels then inexplicably traded Sono to the Nats for Brad Wilkerson. So, in effect, Daniels traded Arod for Brad Wilkerson.
So fret, not, Yankee fans, the first base problem has been solved!
Welcome Back Comments
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Yankees Interested in Wilkerson?
The Bullpen - A Season Long Strategy
This year the bullpen is perhaps more up in the air then it has ever been and I believe it will be a rough year for the pen. I have always believed that a strong pen depended on two factors- a strong closer and a strong starting staff. If you look around the league there are a couple of middle inning guys who perform well year in and year out, but mostly you have a lot of variation in their performance from one year to the next. This is due mostly to them being overexposed. Lights-out relievers end up being closers and the rest are very comparable. If you continually put relievers in the right situations they can have success; however if they are asked to perform more then they are capable of they flop( think of Farnworth whenever he is asked to close).
So this brings me to the current Yankee team. We have the strong closer that will save our middle guys from real big spots late but we have a starting staff that will have to be babied. Three pitchers who will have to be held under 200 innings is a death sentence to our pen. So what do we do? You can expect a couple of casualties because of the innings limitations set on the big three so the goal is to protect the guys with the most upside. So let's break the candidates down into three categories
The Vets
- Rivera
- Hawkins
- Farnsworth
Fillers/NonProspects
- Jose Veras
- T.J. Beam
- Chris Britton
- Brian Bruney
- Matt DeSalvo
- Sean Henn
- Darrell Rasner
- Kei Igawa
Legit Prospects
- Alan Horne
- Jeff Karstens
- Jeff Marquez
- Ross Ohlendorf
- Scott Patterson
- Edwar Ramirez
- Steven White
- Chase Wright
- Jonathan Albaladejo
- Humberto Sanchez
- Mark Melancon
Best April/May Bullpen
- Closer- Mo
- 7th/8th- Hawkins/Fansworth
- 6th -Ohlendorff, Veras
- Long Relief-Edwar, Igawa
The two guys you abuse in this bullpen is Veras and Igawa. Igawa can absorb a bunch of innings and Veras can be the guy who gets a lot of one inning fill appearances. The goal here is to ease Edwar and Ohley into their roles putting them in situations where they can succeed.
Best Midseason Bullpen- Closer- Mo
- 7th/8th- Ohlendorff,Fansworth
- 6th -Hawkins, Bruney
- Long Relief-Edwar, Rasner
By midseason the Yankees should look to increase Ohlendorf's role while still protecting Edwar. Edwar is a reliever with a lot of upside but he is going to really have to be watched closely. Bruney and Rasner become our fall guys with this pen.
Best Late Season/Future Bullpen
- Closer- Mo
- 7th/8th- Ohlendorf,Fansworth
- 6th -Edwar, Hawkins
- Long Relief-Marquez, Melancon
As we prepare for the postseason we setup the bullpen with the best chance in the bullpen and introduce the fresh arms and high upside of Marquez and Melancon. Edwar has now been eased into a role with more impact and Hawkins is still in the mix but in the middle innings not the final bridge to Mo.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Yankee's Top Prospects - Best Tools
BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Jose Tabata
Best Power Hitter Jesus Montero
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Brett Gardner
Fastest Baserunner Brett Gardner
Best Athlete Austin Jackson
Best Fastball Joba Chamberlain
Best Curveball Joba Chamberlain
Best Slider Joba Chamberlain
Best Changeup Edwar Ramirez
Best Control Ian Kennedy
Best Defensive Catcher Francisco Cervelli
Best Defensive Infielder Alberto Gonzalez
Best Infield Arm Marcos Vechionacci
Best Defensive Outfielder Austin Jackson
Best Outfield Arm Seth Fortenberry
It is important to keep in mind that TM (Phil) is no longer a 'prospect' for the purposes of BA rankings. If he were I'm sure he'd rank as Best Curve.
For the purposes of going forward, I'd like to see them re-rank the pitchers without Joba; we know he's the goods, who's next, though?
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Joba vs. Clay
We talked to nine non-Red Sox or Yankees personnel people, and the verdict was decidedly pro-Joba. While most baseball talent evaluators predict stardom for both pitchers, seven of the nine preferred Chamberlain.
Chamberlain's fastball and slider both grade out near 80 on the 20-80 scouts scale
Joba's curve ranges from above average to hellacious depending on the day. His changeup is a work in progress.
Buchholz had an off field issue at McNeese State where he was arrested for stealing some computers.
I went into this with an open mind, and people whose opinions I respect -- scouting directors, talent evaluators who saw both guys in the Eastern League, etc. -- gave the nod to Chamberlain by a substantial margin. That doesn't mean Buchholz won't be terrific, or even that Joba will be better than Buchholz. But I was surprised at the pro-Joba level of sentiment out there.
So basically Joba Rules and Clay is a convict.
Also, another item of note;
A couple of scouts told me they actually prefer Jeff Marquez -- the other prospect whose name was mentioned in the Yankees' Johan Santana package -- to Kennedy.
The more people bash Ian the more I start believing in him. I watched a Yankees Magazine piece on him and his wife and you get the idea that he is grounded and intelligent. I think people are making the typical mistake of valuing velocity too much and not putting enough weight into pitching ability and control.
Phil on Phil
If only...
Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of '05? - Oliver
The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official. However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post. The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it. It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers' offer. Those reporters altered history.
Those reporters are responsible for the Sox winning the series and should be punished accordingly.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Dirty Sanchez
"It didn't hurt to throw, but my extension wasn't where it was supposed to be," explained Sanchez, who underwent more X-rays with famed doctor Dr. James Andrews to figure out the cause of the problem. "They showed that I had some bone spurs in my elbow that had calcified. It happens in maybe one out of 400 cases, but for some reason in mostly Hispanic guys, though they don't know why."
Knowing that it could cause future problems, Sanchez and his doctor decided to go back into surgery to clean out the spurs, setting his progress back another couple of weeks. "
Sanchez has nasty, or in this case dirty, stuff but his health has been checkered at best. Given his health history and his stuff I can't see him as anything but a reliever.
However the article does make you root for him a bit. He is a native to the Bronx and his mom is a huge Yankee fan. She actually hung up on him when he said he was traded to the Yankees thinking he was lying. The article is a good read and Sanchez comes off as a guy you can root for. Maybe we will see Sanchez one day taking over for Mariano the great. Would be kind of cool to have Sanchez one day closing out games for fellow New Yorker Delin Betances, wouldn't it?
Yankee Top Prospect Austin Jackson
2. AUSTIN JACKSON OF
Honolulu (Yankees)
After having a breakout season during which he hit .304/.370/.476 across three levels of the minors, Jackson reported to Honolulu and never slowed down. A premium athlete, Jackson finally grew into his tools in 2007. A line-drive hitter with gap power, Jackson's profile is likely as a No. 2 or No. 3 hitter with the ability to drive in runs. He is an above-average defender in center field, getting good reads and jumps on balls while running quality routes. While he doesn't always get out of the batter's box quickly, he's a graceful runner. "Once he gets underway he's a plus-plus runner," an NL scout said. "He's the best athlete in this league. He doesn't have that first-step explosion, but this guy is a real crowd pleaser on the bases."
Ranked only behind Joba and ahead of Tabata and IPK on BA's list of top 10 Yankee propsects, Ajax is slated to begin 2008 in Trenton (AA). If he's able to keep up the growth he's shown the past year, a 2009 debut in the Bronx is looking likely.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
This Man IS an Eiland
IPK - 6 games, 34 ip
Phil - 5 games, 28 ip
Joba - 3 games, 8ip
What impact could Eiland have had on these 3? The highest number of starts any made was 6; assuming a 5 man rotation he had IPK longest - 30 days!
I'll say again that I am extremely disappointed by the lack of big-league experience on the Yanks' coaching staff. Especially when you factor in the impact that 3 rookies will have on our year, and the impact the pitching coach will have on their long-term success, I can't believe that there weren't more qualified candidates available.
The obvious choice would be Leo Mazzone. Leo has a long history of not only making pitchers better, but also of keeping them healthy long term. There was talk of Leo having motivational problems at the end of the year in Baltimore - well they fired his best friend (manager Sam Perlozzo)! That might piss me off a bit too!
There was surf-n-turf on the menu, but the Yanks instead chose the mystery meal of the day. I really hope that decision doesn't come back to bite us!
Monday, January 14, 2008
The Santana Watch Day 85
TAMPA, Fla. -- New York Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner has not closed the door on a trade for Minnesota Twins left-hander Johan Santana, despite reports to the contrary.
"It's still in the deciding process," Steinbrenner said Monday night outside Legends Field at the Yankees' spring training complex. "We're still discussing it. There's still a little talk back and forth."
The Twins really have no choice but to deal Santana and if they wait till the season starts his trade value will only decrease. However, they continue to try and wait the Yankees out.; they want one more top prospect and I bet they get it.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
With This $275mm, I thee Wed
No longer is Arod the guy who played for Seattle and Texas and was making a stop here in NY with our beloved Yankees. No longer is he the self-absorbed superstar that many Yankee fans boo because he has yet to 'earn his pinstripes.' No longer are we, the fans, dating Arod - with that $275 million contract we got hitched!
Jeter might always be forefront in the hearts of Yankee fans for his clutchness, his rings, his demeanor and his enviable romantic endeavors, but like it or not Yankee fans, Arod is now and for the next 10 years gonna be the Face of the Franchise. We're gonna be moving from the House That Ruth Built, to the new set of The Arod Show on Yes!
Like it or not (and we should like it!), we have got to stop the madness with respect to our new 'true Yankee.' He might be too polished, and the opt out thing was a disaster, but no one can deny the guy works his tail off. He plays everyday, he plays hurt, he produces at a higher level than almost everyone else in the game, he has been a great influence on the younger players in the clubhouse, and now he's here to stay. Can we please stop with the 'until he wins a ring he's not a true Yankee' crap? To those who say that I have 2 words for you - Donnie Baseball.
So when he slumps remember he's not a rent-a-player anymore. When he k's late in a game I don't want to hear ANY boos. NO MORE BOOING AROD! Like any marriage this one won't be perfect; it will take some effort on both ends to work out. I see him working, now we just gotta make sure we hold up our end of the bargain!
Top American League Tools
BEST HITTER
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
2. Derek Jeter, Yankees
3. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
No argument here - Ichiro is the best pure hitter in baseball.
BEST POWER
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. Justin Morneau, Twins
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Huh...I'd have figured to see the hated Big Papi on this list, but that's quite alright!
BEST BUNTER
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
2. Kenny Lofton, Rangers
3. Luis Castillo, Twins
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...bunting's for the NL
BEST STRIKE-ZONE JUDGMENT
1. Travis Hafner, Indians
2. Bob Abreu, Yankees
3. Placido Polanco, Tigers
Hafner? Really? I realize he had a .439 OBP in '06, but that dipped to .385 in '07and is .395 lifetime - very good, but the best in the AL? Placido Polanco is the most underrated player in baseball...period. Did you know he went 341/388/458 with 36 doubles and 30 (THIRTY!) strikouts in 587 PA last year?
BEST HIT-AND-RUN ARTIST
1. Placido Polanco, Tigers
2. Derek Jeter, Yankees
3. Orlando Cabrera, Angels
3 guys who handle the bat extremely well.
BEST BASERUNNER
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Derek Jeter, Yankees
I can feel the Jeet love!
FASTEST BASERUNNER
1. Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
2. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
3. Joey Gathright, Royals
MOST EXCITING PLAYER
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
2. Grady Sizemore, Indians
3. Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
Top of this list 2010 - Austin Jackson
BEST PITCHER
1. Johan Santana, Twins
2. Dan Haren, Athletics
3. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
BEST FASTBALL
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
We all know the name at the top of this list after '08...JOBA THE BEAST!
BEST CURVEBALL
1. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
2. Justin Verlander, Tigers
3. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
Pending - Phil "The Messiah" Hughes
BEST SLIDER
1. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
2. Scott Kazmir, Devil Rays
3. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
Joba might make this list too!
BEST CHANGEUP
1. Johan Santana, Twins
2. James Shields, Devil Rays
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
The best change in all of baseball belongs to Edwar Ramirez; it's truly unfair that it's the only pitch he knows how to throw!
BEST CONTROL
1. Paul Byrd, Indians
2. Johan Santana, Twins
3. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
BEST PICKOFF MOVE
1. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
2. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
3. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
BEST RELIEVER
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
Hey Papelpunk - when you've done it for 13 years and have a 0.77 era in 117+ postseason innings then you can talk about truly being the best reliever in baseball!
BEST DEFENSIVE CATCHER
1. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
Irod is OVERRATED! A great arm does not a great defensive catcher make! He has the best arm in the history of the position, and therefore changes the game unlike any other catcher in the bigs - that's why he gets votes like this.
BEST DEFENSIVE FIRST BASEMAN
1. Mark Teixeira, Rangers
2. Carlos Pena, Devil Rays
3. Casey Kotchman, Angels
Damn, Tex is gonna look good in pinstripes!
BEST DEFENSIVE SECOND BASEMAN
1. Luis Castillo, Twins
2. Placido Polanco, Tigers
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
There's that guy Polanco again!
BEST DEFENSIVE THIRD BASEMAN
1. Eric Chavez, Athletics
2. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
3. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
BEST DEFENSIVE SHORTSTOP
1. Derek Jeter, Yankees
2. Orlando Cabrera, Angels
3. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
Hey...you see this Jason at Baseball Bias? Maybe Zone Rating is overrated!
BEST INFIELD ARM
1. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
2. Brandon Inge, Tigers
3. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
BEST DEFENSIVE OUTFIELDER
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
2. Torii Hunter, Twins
3. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
BEST OUTFIELD ARM
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
2. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
3. Delmon Young, Devil Rays
BEST MANAGER
1. Jim Leyland, Tigers
2. Mike Scioscia, Angels
3. Ron Gardenhire, Twins
What?!? No Torre? HA!
The Santana Watch Day 84
"The two teams continue to talk and word out of Minnesota yesterday was that, yes, the Mets could snare Cy Young Santana for the right price, but as far as the Mets are concerned, that five-for-one deal is not the right price. "
I have stated this again and again - Johan will end up in the Bronx and Phil Hughes + will be on their way to Minnesota. Its just a matter of time. So we wait and wait and wait.....
Roger - Say it Ain't So!
Tarnishing a Hall of Fame legacy is one thing; lying in front of congress is quite another.
I've said before that if Roger stands before congress and continues to boldly and emphatically deny he used PEDs I am going to believe him.
If, however, he wiggles his way out of testifying, my mom's old saying comes to mind - when in doubt, actions speak louder than words.
