Wednesday, June 18, 2008

CC? No-No!

I know CC Sabathia is the logical choice if the Yanks are going to dip into their deep farm system and trade for a starter. I have a couple of issues with that, however.

First, Mark Shapiro is gonna want a king's ransom in return. If the Yanks weren't going to open the vault for the undisputed best pitcher in baseball (Johan), then doing so for CC makes no sense.

Second, I am extremely leery of trading a lot of talent for CC and then signing him long term. There is nothing concrete to back up my fears, but the 1500+ career innings, jump from 180 to 256 innings pitched (including playoffs) between '06 and '07, and his remarkably large body all combine to make me very concerned about him breaking down.

Considering my fear of break-down for a career workhorse who averages 218 ip a year, the guy I want instead makes zero sense...that being said, I want the Yanks to go get Rich Harden.

A year younger than CC, Harden has only thrown 518 innings in his career. His career numbers translate into 'staff-ace' designation - 518ip, 425 h, 498k, 224 walks, 3.49 era. The obvious problem is that he has been limited to 518 innings over 5 full seasons due to injury.

Harden is under control through the 2009 season thanks to a $7mm team option after this season. While the cost in terms of prospects will be high, we won't be forced to sign Harden to a $17-$20mm per year contract for 5-7 years immediately. Should he perform and stay healthy through 2009 the Yanks can then sign him; if he turns out to be Carl Pavano redux we are only on the hook for 1 1/2 years.

If we are going to send some of our minor league talent packing, I firmly believe Phil Phranchise, A-Jax, Jesus and Melancon need to be untouchable. Hopefully a package of Horne, Tabata, Cervelli and Betances gets it done.

Horne should be major league ready for the '09 season, Tabata is having some issues, but is still only 19, Cervelli is a still-developing good young catcher, and Betances has top of the rotation potential. I think that would wet Beane's whistle sufficiently.

1 comment:

BillyBall said...

Wow, that is wayyy to much to give up. I happen to agree with you on the idea of going after Harden over CC. But to give up that many prospects is too risky, especially for a guy who can not prove that he can stay off of the disabled list. Tabata has been a disappointment and a headache but his talent is there. Horne is projected as a guy with power but can be wild at times. If he puts it all together you may have a #2 or 3 starter, at worse he will be in the bullpen. Betances has the body and arm but know one knows if that will equate to a major leaguer. Than you also give them Cervelli, our potential # 2 back up catcher with plus plus defense. He is by far our best defensive catcher in the system with an avg bat. That seems to be way too much based on the upside we are giving up. At worse 2 out of the 4 will be major leaguers. At worst Harden will break down again this year or next year. I love Harden but not to give up the farm for him. I am willing to trade Melky based on my feelings that his potential is 20Hr's and 300 avg at best with 10 SB. That would be his career year. That looks real good but that is replaceable with a Jackson or even Gardner whose bat is not as advanced but his speed would be the top 10 in all of baseball. Than thrown in a Marquez who is a decent prospect and White who has slipped. That is more than enough for a guy that is always hurt. Bedard may be an option as his value continues to slip based on the comments by Seattle's former GM Bavasi. He is a lefty and maybe we can get him for 2 prospects such as Tabata and Horne. I would do that if our scouting tells us he will grow up as a Yankee and not take him self out of games with his pitch limits.

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