Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Anatomy of a Non-Deal

So Johan is going to be a Met...

I'm sure, like me, all Yankee fans have mixed feelings about this. My first reaction was relief. Thank god we're keeping Hughes, and thank god Johan's not going to Boston!

After looking at what the Mets gave up, however, I started to get a little upset. The deal looks kinda like this from a Yankee perspective:

Carlos Gomez = Austin Jackson

I am being very generous here. Gomez is a plus defender with great speed, but Ajax' bat is far superior to Gomez at least right now.

Phil Humber = Chase Wright

Over 3 seasons in the minor leagues, Humber is 13-16 with a 4.11 ERA. A losing record and an era over 4 in the minors...Humber is a non-prospect! At least Wright has good minor league numbers.

Kevin Mulvey = Russ Ohlendorf

Mulvey has decent minor league numbers; 12-10, 3.02, but is projected by BA to be nothing more than a #4 or 5 starter at best. Ohlendorf has shown to be a high ceiling bullpen/setup guy.

Delois Guerra = Delan Betances

BA has this to say about Guerra - Guerra has an 89-94 mph fastball and a promising changeup and he’s only 18. But he also has a below-average breaking ball, has yet to pitch more than 90 innings in a season and while he has held his own, he hasn’t dominated.

That package is a LONG way from the names we heard all off-season like Hughes, Ellsbury and Lester.

Bob Klapisch writes today that Smith called the Yanks Monday night and offered Johan for a package of Kennedy/Cabrera and one more prospect. Cash obviously refused, but he also declined to even make a counter offer. When Smith called Theo he learned that Ellsbury and Lester were off the table also.

I heard Buster Olney on ESPN radio today say that both the Yankees and Red Sox were very concerned about the 5 mph Santana lost off of his fastball after his 17k game last year, and also that Santana refused to throw his slider for the final month of the season - both tell-tale signs of an injury.

Either the Yanks or Sox could have trumped the Mets package without breaking a sweat and without giving up anything close to what had been reported for months. I believe it's safe to say that the combination of the injury concerns and the monster contract caused both teams to stay away.

I would have been willing to give up a package of IPK, Ajax, Marquez and Horne which is FAR superior to the Mets package; Johan IS, after all, the best pitcher on the planet. Imagine a rotation of Johan/Pettitte/Wang/Hughes/! I am beginning to fear that Cash is allowing his new player development plan to cause him to overvalue these young players; hopefully it really was the injury concern and not a case of man-love for the young guns!

1 comment:

Gene Michael said...

"wow! I am beginning to fear that Cash is allowing his new player development plan to cause him to overvalue these young players"

Hmmn, sounds familiar. But I have to agree with you for a change.

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