Monday, January 7, 2008

Projecting Current Yankee HOFers

The hall of fame results are set to be announces tomorrow at 2pm and it got me thinking, How many current Yankees will end up making the Hall? Now even though I project the holy trinity to dominate for years lets skip the kids, including Cano, for this exercise and only look at players with 10+ years in the league.

Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Alex Rodriguez
All three are first-ballot candidates even if they never played another game. Jeter will have 3,000 hits barring injury (has 2356) and with all his gold gloves and clutch play he is in. ARod might become a guy everyone starts rooting for as he starts to erase Bonds from history, he really could retire today and be a first ballot candidate. Rivera is the greatest closer ever, period.

Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada
Now Mussina has a real good shot. His numbers are pretty close;
Top Ten Cy Young - 8 times
Top Ten Wins - 8 times
Top Ten K's - 10 times
Top Ten adjusted ERA+ - 10 times
Five Time All-Star(Seems low)
6 Gold Gloves
Career ERA 3.70
250 Career Wins
The biggest issue Mussina will have is not with the quality of his numbers but the fact that he doesn't have any of he criteria that voters love; a high peak, reaching number thresholds and postseason excellence. High Peak-Moose never won 20 games and never won the Cy Young. He was always overshadowed by Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. Reaching Numbers - 250 wins is nice but 300 is still where automatic election begins. Postseason excellence - Moose pitched some great games in the post season but his numbers (Except Wins) are almost a carbon-copy of his regular season numbers(3.42 Era more then a K per inning). I once heard Moose referred to as Mr Almost, almost wins 20 games, almost won a series, almost pitches a perfect game and it looks like almost makes the hall.

Andy Pettitte
Andy has 200 Wins at age 35 and could become a strong candidate if he pitched well for 3-4 more years. Add in his 18-7 postseason record and he becomes a real strong maybe. However, it looks like he will pack it in sooner rather then later and end his career with 230+ wins, that won't be enough but if he has a late career surge he could make it in.

Jorge Posada
I was surprised to find myself putting Jorge on this list but he has 5 silver slugger awards in the eight years since he been a full-time player. Does the best player at a position for almost a decade deserve consideration for the hall? I think so. Jorge does only have 218 career home runs, to have a reasonable shot he needs to eclipse 300.

Most likely we are probably looking at four who end up getting in; Rivera, Jeter, ARod and one from Posada, Moose and Andy.

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