Wednesday, December 12, 2007

What the...???

Ok, I am officially ticked off. Why is it that the Yanks have to offer not just a little bit more, but A LOT more in trades than do the Red Sox in order to get the same players? The Johan thing is a perfect example...we offer Hughes, and they want Jackson and Kennedy too. They are supposedly 'close' with a package centered around Jon Lester and Ned Lowrie. Well, seeing as how Phil Hughes has been the #1 pitching prospect in baseball for the past 24 months, Lester must be da man, huh? Let's take a look at their minor league numbers side by side -

Lester has 6 seasons minor league experience to Hughes' 4.

Age -
Lester - 1/7/84 - 24 on opening day
Hughes - 6/24/86 - 22 on opening day

Lester - 32-31 in 102 games started
Hughes - 25-8 in 53 games started

Lester - 3.33
Hughes - 2.03

Lester - 8.31
Hughes - 10.18

Lester - 3.78
Hughes - 2.16

Lester - 0.56
Hughes - 0.20

Lester - 7.99
Hughes - 5.56

The numbers go on and on and on! Hughes is a potential ACE; Lester is a potential #3 (AT BEST!). It's not even close!

Some might then say, "Lowerie is going to be a great player, and that makes the Sox' offer as good if not better." Lowrie is a career .291 hitter with ZERO power (20 HR in 3 years). The Yanks were prepared to give up Melky Cabrera who in 3 MAJOR LEAGUE seasons has a .275 average and 15 HR. The argument that Lowrie has more upside is crap too; they are both 23 - Lowrie was born April 17, 1984, and Melky is a whopping 116 days older (Aug. 11, 1984). Melky has stats in the majors that are almost identical to Lowrie's in the minors! Assuming Lowrie hits AAA pitchers better than major leaguers (gee, ya think?), this tilts hugely in favor of the Yanks' offer as well.

So what the hell? Why is it that the Yanks have to offer SOOOOO much more than the Sox to get the same player back?

An argument could (and should!) be made that the most comparable offer the Yanks could make to the Sox' offer of Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson (23, 3.74 era in 2 minor league seasons)would be:

*Alan Horne (AA pitcher of the year, at least an equal to Lester, probably better)
*Melky (better, younger, with more upside and cheaper than Crisp)
*Alberto Gonzalez (24 yr old SS who hit .304 @ SWB last yr - a plus glove with upside, comparable to Lowrie)
*Russ Ohelndorf (a more major league ready pitcher than Materson).

When you compare offers this way it is obvious why the Yanks pulled out...why should we get so totally fleeced when the next best offer is far less than ours?

Hank - hold tight! Johan is good, but if the Twinkies really liked the Sox' offer more Santana would be in Boston already!

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